How far in advance is it safe to predict?

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wsquared77
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How far in advance is it safe to predict?

#1 Postby wsquared77 » Fri Jan 28, 2005 7:59 pm

I live in Miami and I planning to fly with my 2-year-old to Western North Carolina (Asheville) on Saturday morning 2/12 to completely surprise my parents with a visit from their grandson. Some of the 15 day forcasts go up through Friday 2/11 and they are saying possible snow. I know that that forcast can change a lot between now and then but by what date should I feel fairly confident in the forcast and how it might affect my travel plans? I'm working in a very short window (I finish my current job on 2/11 and begin my new one on 2/16) and will only be able to visit for a few days anyway so I don't have much wiggle room. Thanks for your thoughts!
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#2 Postby therock1811 » Fri Jan 28, 2005 8:34 pm

I would say you will be more certain by 2/9. It's too early to predict any more than 4 days ahead with today's knowledge. Those 15 day forecasts are usually based on one model anyway.
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#3 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 28, 2005 9:22 pm

4-5 days IMO, but sometimes that can be a stretch.

15 days out is known as "la la land". The models always show something different every run.
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#4 Postby therock1811 » Fri Jan 28, 2005 9:32 pm

Brent wrote:4-5 days IMO, but sometimes that can be a stretch.

15 days out is known as "la la land". The models always show something different every run.


Oh believe me, I know all about that "la la land"! If it's 4 days out or less, I pretty much take it to the bank.
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