Another snow storm on it's way

[azsnowman]

WELL.....this week could bring yet another snow storm to the White Mountains of Az. With last Sunday, 9 Oct, being the first of the season and now this one, is this a sign of a WET winter or is it just a fluke?

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORM WILL ESTABLISH A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TAP WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EJECT...BRINGING COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING DYNAMICS. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING SNOW LEVELS.

[Aquawind]

Geesh second snow and I am still watching the tropics.. According to the NOAA Winter forecast chances are it's a fluke.. Hope they are wrong as it looks like a good chance for a warm and dry winter in AZ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=76527

Paul

[azsnowman]

Geee.........THANKS PAUL, you just ruined my DAY "LOL!" JUST KIDDING! Yeah, everything I've read thus far IS pointing to a dry, warm winter HOWEVER......my little furry "weather forecasters", skunks, porcupines, geese, elk etc are saying JUST the opposite, I tend to believe Ma Nature and her signs MORE than NOAA's computer models "LOL!"

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Here we go! Although this says snow levels at 7500', I'll still get it.....whenever they say 7500' it snows like a BANCHI here at the house (7102')

Dennis


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS AZ DURING THE DAY. CHANCES OF PCPN WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG DIVQ FORCING...MODERATE OROGRAPHIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STEEP. THESE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE 10K FEET BUT FALL TO AS LOW AS 7500-8000 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY.

[breeze]

Well, alright, Dennis - when are you going to fire up
the "Pot-Bellied Stove"?

[Aquawind]

"weather forecasters", skunks, porcupines, geese, elk etc

Nice Team ya got there..outdoorsy types..

Paul

[azsnowman]

ROLMAO Paul....YUP, they ARE a GREAT team plus they don't eat much

NOW....1-2" POSSIBLE by tomorrow morning

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BRIEFLY. EXPECT LOWEST SNOW LEVELS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AS LOW AS 7000-7500 FEET WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

[Stephanie]

Paul - I saw that initial extended outlook for the Winter and couldn't believe that they had that AGAIN for the SW. My inital reaction was that they just copied and pasted last year's forecast.

It could be right in the long run ( I certainly hope not), but the current setup for storms hitting the SW coast is something I don't remember seeing in quite a while for this time of the year.

[azsnowman]

*REALLY DOING THE SNOWMAN DANCE*

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Severe Weather Statement
For: The White Mountains
Issued: October 18, 2005 15:46:48 MST

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening...then chance of thunderstorms and snow showers after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Lows around 33 above 7000 feet...37 to 43 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow showers in the morning...then slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Light and variable winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Highs 48 to 56 above 7000 feet...57 to 63 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.


Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

Incidentally, my monsoon summary for 2005 and the summary of my 2005 monsoon outlook have been posted in the usual location.

Steve

[azsnowman]

It DID snow, didn't accumulate however, didn't figure it would, the ground was TOooooo warm! Woke up at 0200 for a potty break and looked outside and MAN.......GOOSE feather flakes coming down in bushel baskets. Don't know how much they received up top at the ski resort, I'd say probably 3-5"!!

Dennis