Severe Storms and a Potential Bomb?

[mike815]

EQUALLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL FORCE THE POLAR JET TO PLUNGE SOUTH TO EAST/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF BY SATURDAY...WITH VERY GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS
OVER S. FLORIDA (VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES...RRQ OF JET STREAK AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV this is miami office

[Weatherfreak14]

Does this loo=k like that Ga, SC will be getrting a Major severe weather event. If so how bad yall predicting as of now.

[WaitingForSiren]

No, I dont think GA or SC will get any severe weather out of this. Severe storms may fire up across Lousiana, mississippi and arkansas, but by the time it reaches you it'll just be a line of showers and thunder at best.

[Weatherfreak14]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES INTO PORTIONS OF
TN AND THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE SHOULD INDUCE A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE THAT WILL
MATURE AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM ERN TX INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING EXPECTED BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD
INTO SRN CANADA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
SHARPENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.

..DARROW.. 01/31/2006


Looks like severe weather will be rolling across the southeast on fri and saturday and this seems to have ga, and SC in the futre on Sturday.

[WaitingForSiren]

yeah but you gotta realize that the 4-8 day outlook isnt very reliable, and SPC tends to issue generous foreasts. I mean, a look at the weather map forecasts will show you that the timing just is NOT right for severe weather east of Alabama. Models have the storm reaching Georgia on 12z/7 AM saturday, and severe weather that early in the day with a storm system that isnt particularly intense is VERY rare.

[wxmann_91]

I am waiting for the 0Z runs. The storm has now come ashore in the Pacific Northwest and into our RAOB network, so the 0Z runs should be inputed with this new data. So far the 12Z and 18Z GFS runs have washed out this system, but I am not convinced the storm will go down without a fight, given that the trend for this winter has been 1) a storm shows up and the models are pretty consistant, but then 2) it washes out/dissapears, until 3) the storm comes ashore and the models bring it back.

EDIT: My mistake, the low is not onshore yet, probably won't be until 12Z tomorrow. Sorry.

[WaitingForSiren]

I still say this Friday will be a more potent severe weather day, but even then it looks like an isolated event. The pattern just isnt favorable for anything to go to town.

[mike815]

yeah i think it will be more signif. something at least i hope i hope the weak low developes in the gulf ill have a better chance

[tornadochaser1986]

its goin g to get real interesting

[Weatherfreak14]

I agree

[wxmann_91]

And it goes POOF! No severe weather according to SPC.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah I just noticed that. Ill wait for the latest model runs to make a statement about that, butn I still think parts of the gulf states will have isolated severe weatehr on Friday, and SPC will probably higher the risk at least to a slight risk.

[mike815]

yeah weird its just gone