MODERATE risk for parts of Texas?

[Portastorm]

This time, it looks like we (south central TX) got it much worse than our friends in SE Texas ... usually its the other way around or so it seems.

We had roughly 4.20 inches of rain in a 12-hr period in Austin (north Austin) with 3 different rounds of severe storms. The final batch moved through between 2-3 a.m. (I know because my kids all ran into the bedroom!) with a lot of intense CG lightning and heavy rain. IN fact, a local station recorded 2,800 strikes within an hour period in the Austin metro area. That seems amazing to me!

At least for our part of the state ... the drought now may be easing ... as for my Indians, different story!

[jasons2k]

I had .78" with lots of lightning around - but more to the south. Also had 35 mph gusts with very heavy rain. Here are some radar shots - click them twice for full resolution:

[jasons2k]

New storms popping now SW of Houston:

[southerngale]

Well, that big cell that caused wind damage in Bryan only gave me here in Huntsville a few 50mph wind gusts and some very heavy rain, and then lightning struck nearly directly over me and my car alarm went off.

I'm kinda dissapointed. The warnings were for winds in excess of 70mph. If I could just get one 70mph wind gust I'd be an extremely happy camper.

We've yet to get a drop...I'd be thrilled to get some very heavy rain. And you can have the winds - 70mph gusts likely wouldn't be very friendly to all of the blue roofs around here. We just need rain.

It's gotta be hitting you by now...or past.

That was one of the fastest moving storms I've seen in a while. Not too strong or severe here. Just heavy, blowing rain and lots of thunder. All gone in just under 10 minutes.

Yeah, but it wasn't as much as I'd hoped for, but hey...I'll take what I can get.
The Weatherbug station about 5 miles north of here reported 0.03" and the one about 6 miles south reported 0.11" but the one a couple of miles from that one reported 0.50"
I would have thought we'd get more out of it, but like you said, it was moving so fast! You can't even see that it rained outside as the sidewalk, streets, etc. (that I see) are dry and there's not even a puddle.



Nice radar shots, jschlitz.

[Extremeweatherguy]

next chance of storms comes next Tuesday - Friday. According the SPC...we could see another threat of severe weather too! Things are starting to heat up for us. See my additional below post for more info.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Congrats to all of you that got "real" rain. We had nothing but some light drizzle which did nothing but turn the layer of dust on my truck into muck. Someday we will get some real rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

more rain chances on the way (and more severe weather)! I am very happy about the upcoming week! Here is the latest NWS forecast:

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high around 79.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low near 64.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 80.

Also, here is the SPC input from this morning:



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DAY 3 WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
DURING DAYS 4 /MON/ AND 5 /TUE/...AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TOWARD SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AND ACROSS OK/KS
TO LOWER MO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. BEYOND DAY 5...THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER LOWER
OH/TN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE WITH STRENGTH OF NEXT
UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH...THEY TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TRACK/TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIGS SEWD INTO THE SWRN STATES DAY 6 /WED/.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 4 /MON/ ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN/SERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS REGION...AND THEN ON DAY 5 /TUE/
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN/ERN TX EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD THEN SHIFT WWD BY DAY 7 TO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.

..PETERS.. 04/21/2006

[jasons2k]

Nice radar shots, jschlitz.

Thanks!

[jasons2k]

I'm very happy things look better this week! We could use a few rounds of solid rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest AFD is calling for a chance of rain from next Tuesday all the way to next Sunday! Looking aty the AFD and SPC outlook...I feel the best chances for stormy/severe weather would be Tuesday/Wednesday and then again on Friday night/Saturday of next week. Either way it looks like some beneficial rain is still in the forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z GFS is continuing to show the above predictions...but one thing that really interests me is the feature it has coming in about 7-9 days. It is showing a big bullseye of precip. over the area with a low pressure system associated. There also seem to be good dynamics for severe weather. Something to watch for sure.