SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[KatDaddy]

At this rate we should see snow by December

The awesome snowstorm of Christmas 2004 is fresh in my mind.........totally incredible event!!

[vbhoutex]

Yep th emodels currently show it, but until we get some snow cover to our North these "blasts" of cold air will at a minimum be short lived and possibly quite moderated by the time they reach SE TX. Seen it too many times to ignore it and believe me I like a cold blast and even some snow once in a while, but I live in the wrong place for that to happen much.

[Portastorm]

I posted something on our C/SC Tx weather thread ... but sure enough ... the models (GFS and Euro) have backed off on the cold weather for later next week.

[JenBayles]

Hey Johnny - we ended up renaming Pedernales State Park to "Walk Y'arse Off State Park". It's gorgeous, but you definitely have to bring your hiking shoes to get to the prettiest areas - particularly down by the river.

Back to topic, ready for the round of rain that's supposed to swing through late today through tomorrow morning. Here's hoping for a good soaker without the flooding worries. Is that too much to ask?

[PTrackerLA]

More heavy rain and flooding on the way for Louisiana and parts of Texas:

from NWS Lake Charles

DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

LOTS TO TALK ABOUT. FIRST...LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS
INLAND SE TX/C LA OVERNIGHT...BUT THE RAINFALL WAS MAINLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...PERHAPS TRACE AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS.

ALL GUIDANCE IS GIVING VERY HIGH POPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGE WESTERN U.S. AND
E. PACIFIC TROF BEGINS TO MOVE WEST. MOST OF THIS WILL CONTINUE AS
SHRA THIS MORNING AS THE MOISTURE GLIDES UPSLOPE ACROSS THE ISENTROPIC
SURFACES OF THE RETREATING COOL POOL OF AIR...OR IN LAYMANS TERMS...THE
WARM FRONT.

BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT...OR WHAT`S LEFT OF IT...IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE AREA COMPLETELY OPEN TO
THE GULF AND WHAT`S COMING FROM TX AND OLD MEXICO. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE MIX AS WELL...GIVING HIGHER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. NOW...BEING THAT THE GROUND ACROSS SE TX...SW AND C LA
IS JUST ABOUT FILLED TO CAPACITY WITH WATER...I OPTED TO ISSUE THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. IT WILL ONLY TAKE ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS TO INITIATE FLOODING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.

WAIT...IT`S NOT OVER. ENTERING THE MIX WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM PAUL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OLD
MEXICO TODAY...ENTERING TX BY TONIGHT AND THU. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP H20 ACROSS THE REGION...AND POTENTIAL
QPF TO FALL. WHILE ITS A BIT EARLY TO STATE EXACT RAINFALL ESTIMATES...
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE FIRST SYSTEM ON OCT 15 THAT BROUGHT
MOST OF THE AREA INTO FLOOD...WHICH HAD THE REMNANTS OF EPAC NORMAN
WITH IT. BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE FRI...AVERAGE BASIN TOTALS
OF 2-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

NOW THE GOOD NEWS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY...EXPECT PRECIP
FREE DAYS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MON...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
EXPECTED TUE.

[KatDaddy]

Surprised Hou-Gal NWS has not posted a Flash Flood Watch with what the Lake Charles NWS is seeing

[cottoncloud]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-252100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
537 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
...AS WELL AS THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
PAUL...WILL GIVE THE AREA MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN DIRECT RUNOFF DUE TO SATURATED
GROUNDS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF YOU ARE IN A LOCATION THAT RECEIVES
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...
FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER...STAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE HISTORICAL
LEVELS REACHED LAST WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

[JenBayles]

I've noticed HGX has been bearish on this system from the get-go. Don't know if they don't want to start a panic after the last flooding event or what.

David, like you, I've lived here too long to be swayed by a model showing a huge blast of cold air. We get burned more often than not, but in a way, that makes it more fun to watch, huh? Had handbell practice last night and I'm at the age where the cooler weather has a noticeable impact on the old hands. Warmup is a necessity in the cooler months!

[jasons2k]

I've noticed HGX has been bearish on this system from the get-go. Don't know if they don't want to start a panic after the last flooding event or what.

I noticed that too. I'm watching it closely. It seems like whenever they say 'build an ark', nothing happens, and when they say 'it won't be too bad' - that's when it comes from nowhere and bites you in the rear.

[JenBayles]

Whatever happens, I'm enjoying this rather gloomy, windy, Halloween-like day. Finished up all my errands this morning and have some homemade beef stock going in the kitchen right now. Best thing about this kind of weather: the cooking!

[Yankeegirl]

I totally agree with ya jenn, i have made chicken soup, ham, pea soup... i love to cook when i have to use the stove and not overheat the house!!

[JenBayles]

I bet your husband doesn't mind that one bit either Yankee. It took Dave a few years to figure out that my appetite is totally shot in the summer and consequently, my kitchen activities are severely curtailed. He's enjoying my return to the kitchen as well.

[Johnny]

Jen, we had to walk down to the part of the river where swimming is aloud. The walk down all those rocks and steps wasn't too bad but the walk back up was a killer! Once down by the river, you probably want to stay for a good while.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like a strong squall line could be possible tomorrow:

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST FROM NRN/ERN OK SWD ACROSS
NORTH TX AND PERHAPS THE ARKLATEX WHERE STRONG FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS WITH WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL THREAT
EVOLVING FROM ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN
OK/SRN KS...A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS MAY ERUPT AS DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT MERGE FROM SCNTRL/ERN OK SWWD ACROSS NRN TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF
STORM INITIATION GIVEN SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE WHERE LOCALLY LOW LFC AND HIGH SRH CAN BE MAINTAINED INVOF
SURFACE LOW...AND PERHAPS SWWD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IF DISCRETE
STORMS CAN FORM PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION ACROSS TX.

WITH TIME AND INTO LATE EVENING...MORE LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES
SHOULD EVOLVE AS THE STRENGTHENING FRONT SWEEPS EWD INTO INSTABILITY
AXIS. SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING...SUSTAINED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD
PROMOTE/MAINTAIN A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION FROM THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS INTO LA/MS/AL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE
RATES MAY KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED WITHIN THIS ZONE. STORM
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION COULD INCREASE...HOWEVER...AS STRONGER
FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AND FRONT MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS THESE
AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I posted something on our C/SC Tx weather thread ... but sure enough ... the models (GFS and Euro) have backed off on the cold weather for later next week.

However, JB thinks the models may be having errors. We will have a better idea of what will happen by this weekend.

BTW, though the GFS 850mb temps. are warmer, the surface air still looks chilly:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Strong front with temps. falling into the 40s behind it on Wed. morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Thursday morning = lows in the 40s well south in the state (30s in the north)^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^Friday morning = more of the same (30s in the north)^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml
^^Saturday morning = still somewhat cool^^

10C = 50F
0C = 32F

[JenBayles]

Jen, we had to walk down to the part of the river where swimming is aloud. The walk down all those rocks and steps wasn't too bad but the walk back up was a killer! Once down by the river, you probably want to stay for a good while.

Oh yeah! Been there done that! We hauled the beer cooler and toobs down to a quiet spot and floated, drank, um.... excreted?!... floated, drank... Just getting out of the toob wasn't easy, but that hike up the hill about killed me. One of our neighbors who camped with us started up one of those marching ditties, "Met a girl in Kansas City, she had a mole on her left ..... left, left, left, right, left." Can't say we exactly impressed the family crowd - bunch of middle-aged drunk idiots floating the river.

[JenBayles]

Anyone else having trouble pulling up the NWS HGX page? Haven't been able to connect for over an hour now.

[JenBayles]

KHOU Ch. 11 (Dr. Frank):

Update: Forecast models are slowing down the upper system and cold front by 18 hours. That could mean big trouble for Southeast Texas Thursday. This will give time for the moisture from Tropical Storm Paul to reach Texas. This will also give our area longer time in the rich tropical moisture and an opportunity for rain. We'll have a better look at this Wednesday.

http://www.khou.com/weather/

Um, isn't today Wednesday?

[gboudx]

Anyone else having trouble pulling up the NWS HGX page? Haven't been able to connect for over an hour now.

Jen, you can get some info for the HGX region at this link:

http://www.weather.gov/view/states.php?state=TX

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is pretty breezy here right now. Just a minute ago, a pretty strong gust (likely >35mph) roared through and threw around twigs, leaves, outdoor furniture, etc. I wonder if tomorrow and Friday will be windier than this? I see there are high wind watches up for northern TX, so I wonder what impact we will see here.

BTW: I just went out and checked, and that same gust had knocked over a large topiary in a 20lb. pot. Pretty impressive.