
The awesome snowstorm of Christmas 2004 is fresh in my mind.........totally incredible event!!
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JenBayles wrote:I've noticed HGX has been bearish on this system from the get-go. Don't know if they don't want to start a panic after the last flooding event or what.
...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST FROM NRN/ERN OK SWD ACROSS
NORTH TX AND PERHAPS THE ARKLATEX WHERE STRONG FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS WITH WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL THREAT
EVOLVING FROM ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN
OK/SRN KS...A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS MAY ERUPT AS DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT MERGE FROM SCNTRL/ERN OK SWWD ACROSS NRN TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF
STORM INITIATION GIVEN SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE WHERE LOCALLY LOW LFC AND HIGH SRH CAN BE MAINTAINED INVOF
SURFACE LOW...AND PERHAPS SWWD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IF DISCRETE
STORMS CAN FORM PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION ACROSS TX.
WITH TIME AND INTO LATE EVENING...MORE LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES
SHOULD EVOLVE AS THE STRENGTHENING FRONT SWEEPS EWD INTO INSTABILITY
AXIS. SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING...SUSTAINED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD
PROMOTE/MAINTAIN A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION FROM THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS INTO LA/MS/AL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE
RATES MAY KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED WITHIN THIS ZONE. STORM
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION COULD INCREASE...HOWEVER...AS STRONGER
FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AND FRONT MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS THESE
AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
However, JB thinks the models may be having errors. We will have a better idea of what will happen by this weekend.Portastorm wrote:I posted something on our C/SC Tx weather thread ... but sure enough ... the models (GFS and Euro) have backed off on the cold weather for later next week.
Johnny wrote:Jen, we had to walk down to the part of the river where swimming is aloud. The walk down all those rocks and steps wasn't too bad but the walk back up was a killer! Once down by the river, you probably want to stay for a good while.
JenBayles wrote:Anyone else having trouble pulling up the NWS HGX page? Haven't been able to connect for over an hour now.
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