I see what you are saying NDG. You generally give good snapshot analysis on the teleconnections, and much of what you stated may be right.
I know you are like others who love to hug the EURO and its ensembles, and they just may be right, and buddy, after last year's GEFS ensembles forecast of a - NAO during's last winter's SSW event that never came to fruition, I will humbly eat crow if the GFS and its ensembles are wrong. I am still smarting from that. I am going with my gut on this, for the reasoning I gave earlier about this several days ago. I think we will see a significant cold spell for the Eastern CONUS, as I have mentioned in an earlier post, around the January 8-10 timeframe. Again, I am not anticipating nothing extremely cold to re-emphasize. However, I am anticipating it to get cold enough to get freezes to at least the North Florida peninsula in time. I have seen the teleconnections be off a tad on other past occasions. There have been times in which they can lag a bit in timing..
So, I am on record. I will generally stick with this instance with the GFS and its ensembles or go down like a sinking ship with this

We shall see!