Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Even the Euro has come around to the GFS with a deep trough now at hour 240 over the Central US diving SE. Had it gone out farther, might show a similar solution to the GFS with at least a deep trough over the EC.

By the way the GFS is showing Gulf Stream-effect wintry precip off the SE US coast and NE Florida on that 06Z run!

There in lies the point made. As I told you back on Tuesday Gatorcane the pendulum will eventually begin to swing . Remember that post ...

[NDG]

Teleconnections still showing for early January a strong +AO along with a +NAO and near neutral to slightly -PNA.
There is no way 20s will come down to central FL like the crazy 06z GFS is showing.

By the way, even if you go by last night's Euro, the deep trough it shows is nothing close to the GFS.
The Euro deepens it over the central US with no much advancement towards FL with ridging still present over us while the GFS deepens the trough over the mid Atlantic with ridging over the Mountain States and western Canada, which makes no sense with a forecasted -PNA by the ensembles.
GFES also do not agree with the 06z GFS run.

[northjaxpro]

I see what you are saying NDG. You generally give good snapshot analysis on the teleconnections, and much of what you stated may be right.

I know you are like others who love to hug the EURO and its ensembles, and they just may be right, and buddy, after last year's GEFS ensembles forecast of a - NAO during's last winter's SSW event that never came to fruition, I will humbly eat crow if the GFS and its ensembles are wrong. I am still smarting from that. I am going with my gut on this, for the reasoning I gave earlier about this several days ago. I think we will see a significant cold spell for the Eastern CONUS, as I have mentioned in an earlier post, around the January 8-10 timeframe. Again, I am not anticipating nothing extremely cold to re-emphasize. However, I am anticipating it to get cold enough to get freezes to at least the North Florida peninsula in time. I have seen the teleconnections be off a tad on other past occasions. There have been times in which they can lag a bit in timing..

So, I am on record. I will generally stick with this instance with the GFS and its ensembles or go down like a sinking ship with this We shall see!

[NDG]

It didn't take long for the 12z GFS to drop those 20s from its earlier crazy 06z run.
BTW, as of yesterday the CPC was not biting on the GFS's cold outbread for the SE US. Lets see what they show later today on their update.
Ensembles show Alaska staying well subzero, abnormally cold, through the next couple of weeks due to the strong polar vortex over the Arctic, with no blocking over Greenland, which usually means above average to average temps for the SE US.

[psyclone]

I've got big plans for the January 4th Florida snowstorm depicted by the GFS. Are we still on?

[TheStormExpert]

Florida Winter cancel!

[boca]

Winter Cancel summer weather to continue for foreseeable future, at least I won’t freeze when I take my daughter to FSU.

[northjaxpro]

Winter Cancel summer weather to continue for foreseeable future, at least I won’t freeze when I take my daughter to FSU.

I think you will be OK.

[northjaxpro]

Psyclone will be giddy for the time being. I have to wait a bit longer for some refreshing cooler weather, hopefully sometime in January. This has become an annual ritual with these mild winters. We just about are getting to the point that we just don't have winter seasons , even here in Northeast Florida anymore. +NAO has been the rule for the past 9 years and continues..

[boca]

As long as the NAO is positive and weather systems are progressive forget about any cool downs.

[northjaxpro]

As long as the NAO is positive and weather systems are progressive forget about any cool downs.

Well, that is the case at the present time for sure. I am hopeful that we see a change to this in January in some form.

[northjaxpro]

I've got big plans for the January 4th Florida snowstorm depicted by the GFS. Are we still on?

You have scoreboard on that one LOL... That is a good retort I have to admit.

The time will come eventually to bask in some cool down hopefully................

[gatorcane]

Euro completely backs off on the trough and shows the SE ridge flexing its muscle through day 10.

[psyclone]

Well...if cold season is analogous to hurricane season (where real hurricane season=August through October) cold season = December through February...That means the "bell ring" for cold is 12-20 (cold season equivalent of 8-20 in tropical season)…which means it's way too soon for cold season cancel...so you winter fans have lots of time left..

[northjaxpro]

Well...if cold season is analogous to hurricane season (where real hurricane season=August through October) cold season = December through February...That means the "bell ring" for cold is 12-20 (cold season equivalent of 8-20 in tropical season)…which means it's way too soon for cold season cancel...so you winter fans have lots of time left..

Now, this reasoning, I am in agreement with you. We still have 2/3 of the meteorological winter season still to come!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly, it's the annoying rainy, grey weather that's annoying me more than the lack of a real cold front.

[NDG]

Honestly, it's the annoying rainy, grey weather that's annoying me more than the lack of a real cold front.

I agree, it is annoying. The warmer than average SSTs in the western Atlantic Basin is a good culprit, with a steady easterly surface flow on top of it from every time a cool continental surface high pressure drops down is a good recipe for the relatively "cooler" air to pick up moisture off of the 75+ F SSTs to the east of FL. Green mold everywhere.

[northjaxpro]

Honestly, it's the annoying rainy, grey weather that's annoying me more than the lack of a real cold front.

I agree, it is annoying. The warmer than average SSTs in the western Atlantic Basin is a good culprit, with a steady easterly surface flow on top of it from every time a cool continental surface high pressure drops down is a good recipe for the relatively "cooler" air to pick up moisture off of the 75+ F SSTs to the east of FL. Green mold everywhere.

Yes NDG, I have mold spores all over the place, especially on the back porch and patio. We have only had one brief freeze, back on Dec. 3 and it has been relatively mild and wet here since that time. We had more rain overnight and into early this morning. We just do not have a cool to colder dry air mass anywhere in sight to come in and clean the air and help contain the spread of them. I am having to clean those areas often, especially over the past couple of weeks.

This is the downside of having mild to warm winters, and add wet on top of that, and you have problems. Plus, if we do not get any significant cold soon to kill off the male mosquitoes around here, then we are really going to have a major problem around here

[gatorcane]

Here comes to real cold as the GFS insists, time frame is coming in:



Even the CMC agrees. Euro going to cave I think:

[TheStormExpert]

The problem is the CMC is just as crazy with cold weather for Florida as it is with blowing up everything in the Atlantic come hurricane season. Don’t believe it until the Euro comes onboard in a reasonable timeframe or for several runs.