MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN  NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092042Z - 092245Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
   23Z FROM NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MN.
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA
   BY 23Z OR ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT.
   
   A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB WWD
   THROUGH NWRN NEB WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
   E CNTRL NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ENEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN SD
   THEN SEWD THROUGH WRN IA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
   50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN
   NB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED IN THIS
   AREA. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVES OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING SLY
   LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN
   VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORE
   DEEPLY MIXED REGIME IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH IN E CNTRL NEB AND
   SPREAD EWD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 35 KT AT 500 MB IS
   RESULTING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS
   DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN NEAR AND E OF
   TRIPLE POINT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
   HIGH STORM BASES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
   TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
   
   41669718 42429769 43189813 43769797 43829642 43339503
   42669446 41989505

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN ID AND SWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...
   
   VALID 092046Z - 092245Z
   
   MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER NRN NV...LARGE SCALE
   FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
   HAS BECOME STABILIZED FROM PREVIOUS TSTM CLUSTER AND WILL LIMIT ANY
   ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. THUS THIS AREA SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM WW 453
   SHORTLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN
   UT HAS MERGED WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
   MTNS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND FOCUSED MARGINAL
   SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SWRN
   MT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   LIMITED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...
   
   44421319 43961377 42991503 42601540 42161524 42101227
   42191118 44181096 45211064 45481124 44691271

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NV...WRN/NRN UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455...
   
   VALID 092211Z - 100015Z
   
   ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE UT/NV BORDER WILL MOVE EWD
   AROUND 30 KTS INTO THE SLC METRO AREA BETWEEN 00-01Z. MORE STABLE
   AIRMASS OVER THE SLC AREA/WASATCH FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
   SEVERITY OF THE WIND THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
   FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NERN NV AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE
   TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN/NRN UT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. SFC AIRMASS
   HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NRN UT. RECENT
   SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WHICH MAY AID TO SUPPORT SOME
   ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
   LINE. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
   INTENSIFYING ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WHITE PINE
   COUNTY NV EWD INTO JUAB AND MILLARD COUNTIES UT. MODERATE MID LEVEL
   FLOW /30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ALONG WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
   /1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT IN SRN/SERN PORTIONS
   OF WW 455 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH THESE STORMS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...
   
   41951584 38581568 38661133 39961104 41201106 41951126

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454...
   
   VALID 092312Z - 100045Z
   
   NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE INITIATED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING WEST FROM NERN NEB SFC LOW...ACROSS NWRN NEB...AND INTO
   NERN WY. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE
   COOLER SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   AND RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR A
   FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE AND HIGH WINDS OVER
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   SEVERE THREAT MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN LATER THIS EVENING AS EMPHASIS FOR
   STRONGER FORCING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OVER PARTS OF
   NERN NEB AND SERN SD WHERE WATCH 456 HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   44010230 43039995 41970001 41920111 43040591 44310484

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...ERN NV...NRN AND CENTRAL UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...455...
   
   VALID 100033Z - 100230Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY OVER BOTH WW/S 453 AND 455 AND
   BOTH WW/S MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
   
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS
   OVER SERN ID. THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 453 IN SERN ID. A NARROW AXIS
   OF INSTABILITY REMAINS BEHIND WW 453 IN SWRN ID AND FAR
   NCENTRAL/NERN NV AS PER THE 00Z LKN SOUNDING. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
   AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN OR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
   SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN
   THIS REGION.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER WW 455...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS SURGED OUT
   OF THE WATCH ACROSS THE SLC AREA. FURTHER SW...CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OUTFLOW REMAINS MODEST OVER
   WCENTRAL/CENTRAL UT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
   SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAX THAT IS
   DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS FAR NRN UT. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
   AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON THE 00Z GJT SOUNDING SUGGESTS
   THAT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE EAST OF WW 455 AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NERN UT AND
   POSSIBLY NWRN CO FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...
   
   40880821 40911106 42361103 43421120 42431330 42551449
   42511618 42001655 41631639 41131515 40741273 40361245
   39321247 39111159 38791016 38750852

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0858 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...
   
   VALID 100158Z - 100300Z
   
   STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN IA APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING FROM LACK OF
   GREATER INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT NEAR
   SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...FROM NERN NEB...ACROSS WRN
   IA...AND INTO SWRN MN...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
   THE WARM FRONT...SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MOVING EAST FROM NCNTRL
   NEB MAY ALSO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 456 SHORTLY. HAIL AND
   ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
   
   43060070 41390058 41439380 42229382 42279397 42499400
   43479400 43609402 43649488 43829489 43839834 43939834
   43939931

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO AND WRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101714Z - 101915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER SERN WY INTO NERN CO THROUGH 19Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN NEB BY
   MID AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES
   ARE EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
   ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB INTO EXTREME NERN CO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z OR 19Z.
   
   A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN CO THROUGH WRN NEB AND
   INTO SWRN SD. W OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
   LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S...WHILE E OF THE FRONT
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
   RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG FROM SERN WY INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO
   TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN NEB AND EXTREME NERN CO. SATELLITE DATA
   SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN WY ACCOMPANIED BY
   ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT
   CONTINUES EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STORMS
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO
   AND SPREAD EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP
   EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD WRN NEB. STORMS W OF
   THE FRONT IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHER BASED.
   STORM BASES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   SOMEWHAT HIGHER E OF THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF WRN NEB AND EXTREME
   NERN CO WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   39900424 42340540 42900362 41560237 39870231

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/FAR SWRN IN...PORTIONS OF KY...NERN TN AND
   FAR SWRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101820Z - 102015Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL KY SEWD INTO FAR SWRN VA/NERN TN OVER THE
   NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SRN
   IL AND SWRN IND. SVR THREAT MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT A WW
   MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MWN TO OWB ESEWD TO 60 W OF
   LOZ TO TRI. AIRMASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE...WITH AXIS OF MID-UPPER 60S DWPTS SUPPORTING MLCAPES FROM
   1500-2000 J/KG. WITH MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...AND
   WEAK ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME
   UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
   AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SEWD PARALLEL TO
   THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIRLY
   CONFINED EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AXIS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...
   
   38188695 38568862 38548955 38138969 37468874 36798675
   36368517 35888349 35928261 36368214 36768229 37658501

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC AND PORTIONS OF WRN OF SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101844Z - 102045Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN FOOTHILLS
   OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT OF NC/SC THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON. OVERALL SVR THREAT AND TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE
   MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE SRN APPALACHIANS HAVE AS YET
   LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NC/UPSTATE OF SC. A
   SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND WILL SUPPORT WEAK FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE
   NEXT FEW HRS. EVIDENCE OF THIS FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN
   BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN
   VA/NERN TN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
   WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...AS
   MODEST DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS /1200-1400 J/KG OF DCAPE/. IF
   NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER
   WRN NC/PIEDMONT OF SC IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...THEN CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING OVER NERN TN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   AND MAY POSE AN ORGANIZED DMGG WIND THREAT AT THAT TIME.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   36408107 35978197 35728246 35408277 34818252 34708114
   34927997 36297928

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101854Z - 102100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   FROM SERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO SWRN SD. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
   BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN SD NWWD THROUGH NERN WY
   INTO SERN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   DESTABILIZATION IN NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LOW
   LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
   J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY AN
   INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SERVE AS
   A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. SATELLITE DATA
   SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER NRN CO THAT WILL LIFT ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON.
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND OROGRAPHIC
   FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER SERN MT
   THROUGH NERN WY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN OVER SRN WY INTO WRN NEB AS A MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD
   THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES FROM NERN WY
   INTO SERN MT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   44090550 45170678 45590660 45550553 44820408 43530336
   43050459

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN OK...SCENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101953Z - 102200Z
   
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED TSTMS THAT
   SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH FROM WCENTRAL OK NEWD INTO SCENTRAL
   KS THROUGH 22Z. STORM MVMNT SHOULD BE EAST AROUND 10 KTS. THE
   OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL OK /BECKHAM
   COUNTY/ NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS /RENO COUNTY/. CONVECTION WAS
   DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES EXISTED DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL REMNANT MONSOON PLUME
   AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE. VERY
   WARM SFC TEMPERATURES /LOWER 100S/ EXISTED OVER WRN OK NWD INTO
   SCENTRAL KS. RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CINH
   REMAINING AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. MODEST LOW LEVEL WINDS
   /20-25 KTS/ EXISTED IN DEEPLY MIXED THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. COMBINED
   WITH DCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST
   WITH ANY HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   35939739 37809603 38139662 37779813 36359905 36029911
   35429959 35259960 34869880 34959823

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL MO...SWRN/SRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102028Z - 102230Z
   
   SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM NEAR COU ESEWD TO THE STL METRO AREA/SRN IL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA
   IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.
   
   LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COU ESEWD BISECTING THE STL
   METRO...THEN SEWD TO NEAR MT VERNON. RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
   WEAKENING CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH /AS EVIDENT BY RECENT
   INCREASE IN LTG /ELEVATED ECHO TRENDS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO/ SHOULD
   SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE NEXT FEW
   HRS AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN
   ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY IS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
   NCENTRAL/NWRN MO MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS INTO ECENTRAL MO AND INTERACT
   WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM
   1500-2500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
   SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY STEEP
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   39309096 39519217 38649257 37708823 38648780

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0407 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102107Z - 102300Z
   
   NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
   THIS AREA ONCE STORM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO NWWD
   THROUGH E CNTRL KS TO THE SW OF EMPORIA. FARTHER N...A ZONE OF MID
   LEVEL ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TOPEKA EWD THROUGH NRN MO.
   THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE CORRIDOR FROM
   NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO S OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
   ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. A ZONE OF ASCENT
   EXISTS FROM NERN KS INTO NWRN MO WHERE IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
   CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING AND WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
   REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS. A BAND OF 30 KT WLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW EXISTS IN THIS AREA...SUPPORTING 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE
   ORDER OF 35 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO SURFACE
   BASED STORMS...AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
   HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38869304 38209474 38239700 38879726 39229648 39289521
   39489352

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...FAR ECENTRAL CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...458...
   
   VALID 102141Z - 102345Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS
   SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND ECENTRAL CO AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL STORMS OVER FAR WRN NEB/NERN CO MOVE ESEWD OUT WW/S 457
   AND 458. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BEFORE 23Z OVER THE AREA.
   
   
   LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER FAR WRN NEB...WITH MORE ISOLATED SVR
   CONVECTION OVER NERN CO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE MCS OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HRS. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS STORMS MAY
   BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A
   RELATIVELY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...CELL/LINE MERGERS AND
   STRONG MID LEVEL WLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW DOMINANT
   CONVECTIVE MODE THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO NWRN KS. THUS
   THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD TRACK ALONG
   THIS AXIS INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND FAR ECENTRAL CO THIS EVENING.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   41439911 40750248 38540250 38769893

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN KS...CENTRAL MO AND SRN
   IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...
   
   VALID 110024Z - 110230Z
   
   CONTINUE MOST OF WW 459 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN MO/ERN KS
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
   AREA /MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG/ AND MINIMAL CINH...HIGH BASED
   TSTMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING
   INTO WW 459 DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET
   IMPINGING ON SLOWLY SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
   WCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO SHOULD SUPPORT CELL BACKBUILDING INTO WCENTRAL
   MO. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AS CELL MOTIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
   PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
   
   FURTHER EAST...A CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL
   OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 459 WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE
   STL METRO AREA FROM 0030Z TO 02Z. LEAD CELL THAT HAS EXHIBITED BOTH
   SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD RIGHT MOVE ALONG
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN STL METRO AREA WHERE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   THIS STORM THROUGH 02Z. THE SVR THREAT MAY LAST LONG ENOUGH THAT A
   NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 459 ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN IND
   AND FAR WRN KY BEFORE 03Z WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
   AFOREMENTIONED STG-SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF STL WILL
   LIKELY LEAD TO CELL TRAINING/HVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE
   ECENTRAL MO/SWRN IL LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   39299078 38769491 37759501 37399506 37848992 37008803
   38258646 39548880

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN AND
   INTO N CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...460...
   
   VALID 110041Z - 110215Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD OUT OF ERN CO AND SWRN NEB
   INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF WW 460.
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS WW 457...WITH SUPERCELL
   NOW OVER SRN YUMA/NRN KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN ERN CO NOW WITHIN THE
   CONFINES OF WW 460.  STORMS ARE ALSO ENTERING WW 460 FROM THE
   NW...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB.
   
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO THIS AREA.
    THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE
   ACROSS WW 460. WITH TIME...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXPAND EWD
   INTO FAR S CENTRAL NEB AND N CENTRAL KS...AS STORMS MOVE E OF WW 460
   -- AND PERHAPS WITH SEPARATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
   
   40580216 40660134 40640077 40489984 40169885 39769806
   38669807 38399856 38470081 38740248 39500280 40370272

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MO INTO ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...
   
   VALID 110342Z - 110545Z
   
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER FAR
   NWRN AREAS OF WW 459...AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING HOURS. ALSO...MCS OVER NWRN KS WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND WILL
   BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WW INTO NERN KS.
   
   SEVERE STORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO ALONG ZONE
   OF DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
   JET. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION IS MARGINAL. STILL...LIFT WILL PERSIST ALONG
   FRONTAL ZONE WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND LIKELY WITH
   STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATER TONIGHT...MCS NOW ENTERING N CENTRAL KS...OR AT LEAST OUTFLOW
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE FURTHER AND MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL AND/OR
   INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF NERN
   KS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND POSSIBLE WW LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38989499 38889140 38868902 38078897 37289513

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...
   
   VALID 110405Z - 110530Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NWRN KS.  THOUGH
   A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...NEW WW DOES NOT
   APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM E OF WW 460.
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE TWO MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT
   STORMS -- ONE OVER ERN NORTON/WRN PHILLIPS COUNTY KS AND THE OTHER
   OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY KS -- HAVE WEAKENED RECENTLY.  THOUGH
   INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST...SEVERE THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE LIMITED INTO N CENTRAL KS...WITH LOW-LEVEL JET NOW
   BECOMING WELL-ESTABLISHED WELL E -- ACROSS NERN KS.
   
   THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS
   ATTM THAT NEW WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   39720093 40150026 40179943 39789852 39039811 38379896
   38389984 38870057

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NRN/CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...
   
   VALID 110814Z - 110945Z
   
   COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MCS ACROSS NRN MO AND SERN NEB
   ARE STRENGTHENING EARLY THIS MORNING.  ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
   MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH ERN KS WHILE ANOTHER IS SETTLING SWD
   INTO CNTRL MO. H9-H85 JET OF 40-50 KTS BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO THE
   EVOLVING COLD POOLS WAS SUPPORTING A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTMS VCNTY
   KMCI EWD TO WEST OF KSTL.  THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME THE
   DOMINATE STORMS AND AS THE LLJ VEERS...AREAS FROM CNTRL INTO ERN MO
   ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST STORMS.  MUCAPE OF 2000-2500
   J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD
   LARGE HAIL.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  BUT...PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   39739665 40439629 40479424 40109278 38689069 37959058
   37909226 38149560 38869695

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH N CNTRL TN THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111638Z - 111845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP
   EWD THROUGH NWRN AND NCNTRL TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.
   THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN KY.
   FARTHER SW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL SWWD THROUGH SERN MO AND NERN AR.
   WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESTABILIZING WITH STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND
   1500 J/KG. AN MCV OVER S CNTRL IL WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON
   AND MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
   ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS KY. OTHER STORMS MAY
   INTENSIFY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE MODEST WITH WLY EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXISTS
   OVER CNTRL KY NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
   30 TO 35 KT. DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELLULAR AND
   SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   37618458 37198406 36658415 36238486 35858643 35548781
   35438949 36748886 37658713