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TexasStooge
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#1821 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:34 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 092042Z - 092245Z
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
23Z FROM NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MN.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA
BY 23Z OR ONCE IT APPEARS INITIATION IS IMMINENT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB WWD
THROUGH NWRN NEB WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
E CNTRL NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ENEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN SD
THEN SEWD THROUGH WRN IA. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN
NB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING SLY
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORE
DEEPLY MIXED REGIME IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH IN E CNTRL NEB AND
SPREAD EWD. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 35 KT AT 500 MB IS
RESULTING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN NEAR AND E OF
TRIPLE POINT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
HIGH STORM BASES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
..DIAL.. 06/09/2006
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
41669718 42429769 43189813 43769797 43829642 43339503
42669446 41989505
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TexasStooge
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#1822 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:35 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN ID AND SWRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...
VALID 092046Z - 092245Z
MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER NRN NV...LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
HAS BECOME STABILIZED FROM PREVIOUS TSTM CLUSTER AND WILL LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. THUS THIS AREA SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM WW 453
SHORTLY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN
UT HAS MERGED WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND FOCUSED MARGINAL
SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SWRN
MT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...
44421319 43961377 42991503 42601540 42161524 42101227
42191118 44181096 45211064 45481124 44691271
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TexasStooge
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#1823 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:36 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NV...WRN/NRN UT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455...
VALID 092211Z - 100015Z
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE UT/NV BORDER WILL MOVE EWD
AROUND 30 KTS INTO THE SLC METRO AREA BETWEEN 00-01Z. MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE SLC AREA/WASATCH FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
SEVERITY OF THE WIND THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW.
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NERN NV AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN/NRN UT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. SFC AIRMASS
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NRN UT. RECENT
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WHICH MAY AID TO SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WHITE PINE
COUNTY NV EWD INTO JUAB AND MILLARD COUNTIES UT. MODERATE MID LEVEL
FLOW /30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ALONG WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
/1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT IN SRN/SERN PORTIONS
OF WW 455 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH THESE STORMS.
..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2006
ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...
41951584 38581568 38661133 39961104 41201106 41951126
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TexasStooge
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#1824 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:37 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454...
VALID 092312Z - 100045Z
NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE INITIATED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING WEST FROM NERN NEB SFC LOW...ACROSS NWRN NEB...AND INTO
NERN WY. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR A
FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE AND HIGH WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
SEVERE THREAT MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN LATER THIS EVENING AS EMPHASIS FOR
STRONGER FORCING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OVER PARTS OF
NERN NEB AND SERN SD WHERE WATCH 456 HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED.
..CARBIN.. 06/09/2006
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
44010230 43039995 41970001 41920111 43040591 44310484
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TexasStooge
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#1825 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:41 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ID...ERN NV...NRN AND CENTRAL UT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...455...
VALID 100033Z - 100230Z
THREAT FOR SVR IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY OVER BOTH WW/S 453 AND 455 AND
BOTH WW/S MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS
OVER SERN ID. THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 453 IN SERN ID. A NARROW AXIS
OF INSTABILITY REMAINS BEHIND WW 453 IN SWRN ID AND FAR
NCENTRAL/NERN NV AS PER THE 00Z LKN SOUNDING. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN OR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN
THIS REGION.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER WW 455...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS SURGED OUT
OF THE WATCH ACROSS THE SLC AREA. FURTHER SW...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF OUTFLOW REMAINS MODEST OVER
WCENTRAL/CENTRAL UT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAX THAT IS
DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS FAR NRN UT. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AS NOTED ON THE 00Z GJT SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EAST OF WW 455 AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NERN UT AND
POSSIBLY NWRN CO FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...
40880821 40911106 42361103 43421120 42431330 42551449
42511618 42001655 41631639 41131515 40741273 40361245
39321247 39111159 38791016 38750852
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TexasStooge
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#1826 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:41 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...
VALID 100158Z - 100300Z
STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN IA APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING FROM LACK OF
GREATER INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT NEAR
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...FROM NERN NEB...ACROSS WRN
IA...AND INTO SWRN MN...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE WARM FRONT...SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MOVING EAST FROM NCNTRL
NEB MAY ALSO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 456 SHORTLY. HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..CARBIN.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
43060070 41390058 41439380 42229382 42279397 42499400
43479400 43609402 43649488 43829489 43839834 43939834
43939931
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TexasStooge
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#1827 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:17 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO AND WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101714Z - 101915Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER SERN WY INTO NERN CO THROUGH 19Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN NEB BY
MID AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES
ARE EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB INTO EXTREME NERN CO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z OR 19Z.
A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN CO THROUGH WRN NEB AND
INTO SWRN SD. W OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S...WHILE E OF THE FRONT
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG FROM SERN WY INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO
TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN NEB AND EXTREME NERN CO. SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN WY ACCOMPANIED BY
ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO
AND SPREAD EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP
EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD WRN NEB. STORMS W OF
THE FRONT IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHER BASED.
STORM BASES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER E OF THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF WRN NEB AND EXTREME
NERN CO WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
39900424 42340540 42900362 41560237 39870231
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TexasStooge
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#1828 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:17 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/FAR SWRN IN...PORTIONS OF KY...NERN TN AND
FAR SWRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101820Z - 102015Z
ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL KY SEWD INTO FAR SWRN VA/NERN TN OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SRN
IL AND SWRN IND. SVR THREAT MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT A WW
MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MWN TO OWB ESEWD TO 60 W OF
LOZ TO TRI. AIRMASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...WITH AXIS OF MID-UPPER 60S DWPTS SUPPORTING MLCAPES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG. WITH MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...AND
WEAK ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SEWD PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIRLY
CONFINED EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AXIS.
..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...
38188695 38568862 38548955 38138969 37468874 36798675
36368517 35888349 35928261 36368214 36768229 37658501
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TexasStooge
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#1829 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:18 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC AND PORTIONS OF WRN OF SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101844Z - 102045Z
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT OF NC/SC THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SVR THREAT AND TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE SRN APPALACHIANS HAVE AS YET
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NC/UPSTATE OF SC. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND WILL SUPPORT WEAK FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS. EVIDENCE OF THIS FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN
BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN
VA/NERN TN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...AS
MODEST DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS /1200-1400 J/KG OF DCAPE/. IF
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER
WRN NC/PIEDMONT OF SC IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...THEN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NERN TN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY POSE AN ORGANIZED DMGG WIND THREAT AT THAT TIME.
..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
36408107 35978197 35728246 35408277 34818252 34708114
34927997 36297928
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TexasStooge
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#1830 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:18 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101854Z - 102100Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM SERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO SWRN SD. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN SD NWWD THROUGH NERN WY
INTO SERN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION IN NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER NRN CO THAT WILL LIFT ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER SERN MT
THROUGH NERN WY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER SRN WY INTO WRN NEB AS A MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES FROM NERN WY
INTO SERN MT.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
44090550 45170678 45590660 45550553 44820408 43530336
43050459
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TexasStooge
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#1831 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:19 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN OK...SCENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101953Z - 102200Z
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED TSTMS THAT
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH FROM WCENTRAL OK NEWD INTO SCENTRAL
KS THROUGH 22Z. STORM MVMNT SHOULD BE EAST AROUND 10 KTS. THE
OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL OK /BECKHAM
COUNTY/ NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS /RENO COUNTY/. CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXISTED DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL REMNANT MONSOON PLUME
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE. VERY
WARM SFC TEMPERATURES /LOWER 100S/ EXISTED OVER WRN OK NWD INTO
SCENTRAL KS. RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CINH
REMAINING AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. MODEST LOW LEVEL WINDS
/20-25 KTS/ EXISTED IN DEEPLY MIXED THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. COMBINED
WITH DCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST
WITH ANY HIGH BASED TSTM ACTIVITY.
..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
35939739 37809603 38139662 37779813 36359905 36029911
35429959 35259960 34869880 34959823
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TexasStooge
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#1832 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:20 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL MO...SWRN/SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 102028Z - 102230Z
SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR COU ESEWD TO THE STL METRO AREA/SRN IL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA
IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR COU ESEWD BISECTING THE STL
METRO...THEN SEWD TO NEAR MT VERNON. RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAKENING CINH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH /AS EVIDENT BY RECENT
INCREASE IN LTG /ELEVATED ECHO TRENDS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO/ SHOULD
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN
ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY IS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
NCENTRAL/NWRN MO MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS INTO ECENTRAL MO AND INTERACT
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM
1500-2500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS.
..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...
39309096 39519217 38649257 37708823 38648780
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TexasStooge
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#1833 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:20 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 102107Z - 102300Z
NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS AREA ONCE STORM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.
THIS AFTERNOON A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO NWWD
THROUGH E CNTRL KS TO THE SW OF EMPORIA. FARTHER N...A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TOPEKA EWD THROUGH NRN MO.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE CORRIDOR FROM
NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO S OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. A ZONE OF ASCENT
EXISTS FROM NERN KS INTO NWRN MO WHERE IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING AND WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS. A BAND OF 30 KT WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW EXISTS IN THIS AREA...SUPPORTING 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 35 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO SURFACE
BASED STORMS...AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARD EVENING.
..DIAL.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
38869304 38209474 38239700 38879726 39229648 39289521
39489352
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TexasStooge
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#1834 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:21 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...FAR ECENTRAL CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...458...
VALID 102141Z - 102345Z
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS
SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND ECENTRAL CO AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STORMS OVER FAR WRN NEB/NERN CO MOVE ESEWD OUT WW/S 457
AND 458. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BEFORE 23Z OVER THE AREA.
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER FAR WRN NEB...WITH MORE ISOLATED SVR
CONVECTION OVER NERN CO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE MCS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A
RELATIVELY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...CELL/LINE MERGERS AND
STRONG MID LEVEL WLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW DOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO NWRN KS. THUS
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD TRACK ALONG
THIS AXIS INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AND FAR ECENTRAL CO THIS EVENING.
..CROSBIE.. 06/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
41439911 40750248 38540250 38769893
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TexasStooge
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#1835 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:17 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN KS...CENTRAL MO AND SRN
IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...
VALID 110024Z - 110230Z
CONTINUE MOST OF WW 459 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN MO/ERN KS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA /MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG/ AND MINIMAL CINH...HIGH BASED
TSTMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING
INTO WW 459 DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON SLOWLY SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
WCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO SHOULD SUPPORT CELL BACKBUILDING INTO WCENTRAL
MO. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AS CELL MOTIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER EAST...A CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 459 WILL MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE
STL METRO AREA FROM 0030Z TO 02Z. LEAD CELL THAT HAS EXHIBITED BOTH
SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD RIGHT MOVE ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN STL METRO AREA WHERE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM THROUGH 02Z. THE SVR THREAT MAY LAST LONG ENOUGH THAT A
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 459 ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN IND
AND FAR WRN KY BEFORE 03Z WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
AFOREMENTIONED STG-SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF STL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO CELL TRAINING/HVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE
ECENTRAL MO/SWRN IL LATER THIS EVENING.
..CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
39299078 38769491 37759501 37399506 37848992 37008803
38258646 39548880
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TexasStooge
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#1836 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:18 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN AND
INTO N CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...460...
VALID 110041Z - 110215Z
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD OUT OF ERN CO AND SWRN NEB
INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF WW 460.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS WW 457...WITH SUPERCELL
NOW OVER SRN YUMA/NRN KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN ERN CO NOW WITHIN THE
CONFINES OF WW 460. STORMS ARE ALSO ENTERING WW 460 FROM THE
NW...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO THIS AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE
ACROSS WW 460. WITH TIME...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXPAND EWD
INTO FAR S CENTRAL NEB AND N CENTRAL KS...AS STORMS MOVE E OF WW 460
-- AND PERHAPS WITH SEPARATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
..GOSS.. 06/11/2006
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
40580216 40660134 40640077 40489984 40169885 39769806
38669807 38399856 38470081 38740248 39500280 40370272
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TexasStooge
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#1837 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:18 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MO INTO ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...
VALID 110342Z - 110545Z
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER FAR
NWRN AREAS OF WW 459...AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALSO...MCS OVER NWRN KS WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND WILL
BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WW INTO NERN KS.
SEVERE STORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO ALONG ZONE
OF DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION IS MARGINAL. STILL...LIFT WILL PERSIST ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND LIKELY WITH
STRONGER CELLS.
LATER TONIGHT...MCS NOW ENTERING N CENTRAL KS...OR AT LEAST OUTFLOW
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FURTHER AND MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL AND/OR
INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF NERN
KS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND POSSIBLE WW LATER TONIGHT.
..JEWELL.. 06/11/2006
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
38989499 38889140 38868902 38078897 37289513
Last edited by
TexasStooge on Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TexasStooge
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#1838 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:19 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...
VALID 110405Z - 110530Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NWRN KS. THOUGH
A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...NEW WW DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM E OF WW 460.
LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE TWO MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT
STORMS -- ONE OVER ERN NORTON/WRN PHILLIPS COUNTY KS AND THE OTHER
OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY KS -- HAVE WEAKENED RECENTLY. THOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST...SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED INTO N CENTRAL KS...WITH LOW-LEVEL JET NOW
BECOMING WELL-ESTABLISHED WELL E -- ACROSS NERN KS.
THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS
ATTM THAT NEW WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.
..GOSS.. 06/11/2006
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
39720093 40150026 40179943 39789852 39039811 38379896
38389984 38870057
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TexasStooge
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#1839 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:20 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NRN/CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...
VALID 110814Z - 110945Z
COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MCS ACROSS NRN MO AND SERN NEB
ARE STRENGTHENING EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH ERN KS WHILE ANOTHER IS SETTLING SWD
INTO CNTRL MO. H9-H85 JET OF 40-50 KTS BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO THE
EVOLVING COLD POOLS WAS SUPPORTING A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTMS VCNTY
KMCI EWD TO WEST OF KSTL. THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME THE
DOMINATE STORMS AND AS THE LLJ VEERS...AREAS FROM CNTRL INTO ERN MO
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST STORMS. MUCAPE OF 2000-2500
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD
LARGE HAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BUT...PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.
..RACY.. 06/11/2006
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...
39739665 40439629 40479424 40109278 38689069 37959058
37909226 38149560 38869695
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TexasStooge
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#1840 Postby TexasStooge » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:45 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH N CNTRL TN THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 111638Z - 111845Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP
EWD THROUGH NWRN AND NCNTRL TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN KY.
FARTHER SW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL SWWD THROUGH SERN MO AND NERN AR.
WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESTABILIZING WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. AN MCV OVER S CNTRL IL WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS KY. OTHER STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE MODEST WITH WLY EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXISTS
OVER CNTRL KY NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
30 TO 35 KT. DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTICELLULAR AND
SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD.
..DIAL.. 06/11/2006
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
37618458 37198406 36658415 36238486 35858643 35548781
35438949 36748886 37658713
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