2008 Severe Weather Thread

[Category 5]

*knock knock* NWS Dodge City?

[Category 5]

Look at these returns!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Almost baseball sized hail near Roswell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT MON MAY 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0359 PM HAIL 24 W ROSWELL 33.37N 104.95W
05/05/2008 E2.50 INCH LINCOLN NM STORM CHASER

0409 PM HAIL 17 W ROSWELL 33.37N 104.82W
05/05/2008 E1.00 INCH CHAVES NM AMATEUR RADIO

0514 PM HAIL 5 N ROSWELL 33.44N 104.53W
05/05/2008 E2.75 INCH CHAVES NM AMATEUR RADIO

0517 PM HAIL 10 NW ROSWELL 33.47N 104.65W
05/05/2008 E2.75 INCH CHAVES NM EMERGENCY MNGR

[CrazyC83]

Drove through some REALLY impressive cells near Wilmington, NC today. Stopped for 45 minutes due to extreme rain and hail (up to 1.5 inches).

[Category 5]

What the heck?

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC069-279-060300-
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0031.080506T0205Z-080506T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
905 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CASTRO COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTHERN LAMB COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EARTH...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF MULESHOE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SUDAN...
AMHERST...OLTON...FIELDTON AND HART.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 7 4 5 1 2 9 0.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3442 10200 3431 10200 3432 10209 3400 10209
3402 10259 3421 10260 3430 10260 3431 10251
3443 10249
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 285DEG 13KT 3433 10245

$$

[Cyclenall]

* AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EARTH...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF MULESHOE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

Wow, that is a classic.

[KWT]

Well the UK team chased yesterday, whilst they didnt get a tube they did get a decent wall cloud and the odd funnel develop:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=uytwW91wkMM

Should think there is a fair chance of them getting some actvity today and tomorrow though.

[RL3AO]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY....

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET
BEGINNING TO NOSE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN NM/SOUTHWEST
TX. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY FAST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED INTO TWO AREAS: NEB/KS AND WEST TX.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND TIMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND
LESSENS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SCENARIO.

...NEB/KS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
WEST-NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...PROVIDING
INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CAPE VALUES DESPITE RATHER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COMBINATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE
INHIBITION. CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN SD MAY INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHER STORMS FORM SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/NORTHWEST KS. ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA /MUCH OF NEB AND NORTHWEST KS/ WITH LARGE
HAIL LIKELY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING
HAIL. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS
DURING THE EVENING AND POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL KS.

...EASTERN NM/WEST TX...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAF EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
TX. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO WASH OUT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
INTO MUCH OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM. THIS AREA IS UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THIS MORNING...BUT HEIGHT FALLS WILL COMMENCE BY MID
AFTERNOON WHILE STRONG SURFACE HEATING RESULTS IN MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-2500 J/KG. AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WEST OF LBB-MAF. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE
FORCING OVERSPREADS REGION.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/06/2008

[Bunkertor]

All right, i´m back. Peter is married and goes for honeymoon and i´ll stay in germany.

[Ed Mahmoud]

All right, i´m back. Peter is married and goes for honeymoon and i´ll stay in germany.

What is wrong with Germany. All that unpleasant stuff 60 years ago is forgiven, and although my wife will probably never agree, I'd love to visit Munich in Autumn.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well the UK team chased yesterday, whilst they didnt get a tube they did get a decent wall cloud and the odd funnel develop:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=uytwW91wkMM

Should think there is a fair chance of them getting some actvity today and tomorrow though.

While greater overall severe odds in Nebraska and Kansas, SPC odds of tornadoes are higher in the Panhandle. Must be a tough decision.


I hope they get more good video.

[KWT]

I think most of the UK teams that are out there are going for the southern option in the Panhandle, problem is there is quite a wide area that could get severe storms today, going to be a case of being able to adjust plans on the hop I suspect.

i suspect tomorrow's possible severe storms are also playing a role in going for the southern option, probably less driving overnight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't see it on SPC page yet, but AMA AFD update mentioned an 18Z balloon release...

[RL3AO]

Thats weird. The 18z soundings (3 of them) were there just a couple minutes ago. Now its gone.

[KWT]

I suppose that makes sense but where is AMA by the way, indeed what station is it for that matter i'm not sure?

I guess Amarillo?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I suppose that makes sense but where is AMA by the way, indeed what station is it for that matter i'm not sure?

I guess Amarillo?

yes.

[KWT]

Cool well will be interesting to see what they show is going on in the atmosphere where they are going up. The team I'm watching are heading towards Childress for some lunch (probns there by now)

[Bunkertor]

All right, i´m back. Peter is married and goes for honeymoon and i´ll stay in germany.

What is wrong with Germany. All that unpleasant stuff 60 years ago is forgiven, and although my wife will probably never agree, I'd love to visit Munich in Autumn.

No, it´s OK over here, but he´s underway on an isle in the gulf of bengal which i´d prefer, too - for some weeks.

Oktoberfest must be nice but i never was there.
Maybe i should

But this year i can´t either, because my hometown is going to celebrate Grenzegangsfest. This Fest only takes place all 7 years. The highlight is a walking tour along the city limits determined 1239.

[KWT]

To be honest not sure quite how to respond to that Bunkertor but yeah...

Looks like there is a fair chance something will set up on one of the outflow boundaries eventually or maybe a bulge in the dryline.

[Bunkertor]

First TORNADO WARNING for today
NEC017-149-062215-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0004.080506T2129Z-080506T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
429 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHERN ROCK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ROSE...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AINSWORTH...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TWIN LAKES STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA BY
440 PM CDT...
ROSE BY 445 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.