#9875 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2011 2:38 pm
The good news is that no cyclones are forecast for the Caribbean in the next ten days. But the bad news is more rain may arrive here in the next few days.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST WED AUG 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
FOLLOW IRENE TO THE NORTHWEST. A TUTT LOW ABOUT 875 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN WILL STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAKEN DURING THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK AND RE-STRENGTHEN LATER NEXT WEEK.
AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...AS IRENE MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF CUBA...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE
MIGRATING WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW WILL WEAKEN AT
LOWER LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEGINNING FRIDAY.
A SUBSEQUENT LOW LEAVING THE AFRICAN CONTINENT ON MONDAY SHOULD
FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL WESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BUT WOULD NOT CROSS OUR
LONGITUDE UNTIL AFTER LABOR DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK RAIN BAND REMAINS IN THE MONA CHANNEL...OTHERWISE
ONLY TRANSITORY SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY GROUPING INTO LINES ALIGNED
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...WERE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO GROUPED OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH AREAS OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TOWARD THE AREA...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DEPICTED
ARE LIGHT. AT THIS TIME TALL TOWERS ARE LIMITED TO THE MONA
CHANNEL...POSSIBLY DUE TO MID LAYER DRYING. THEREFORE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. RIVERS ARE FALLING AND NO MONITORED
RIVERS WERE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD AT 3 PM AST.
THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WAS CONSIDERED...BUT
SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN IN SPITE
OF CLEARING SKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY NEVERTHELESS BE
ENCOUNTERED IN THE MOST DEEP AND PROTECTED VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONSISTENT...BUT EXPECT A DRYING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THEN...SATURDAY...WITH EAST SOUTHEAST
FLOW...AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT LOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ENHANCED... AND LOW LEVEL HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL
RETURN US TO OUR NORMAL SUMMER CONVECTIVE PATTERN. WITH THE AXIS
OF THE TUTT LOW TO OUR WEST NEXT WEEK ...BETTER CONVECTION AND A
RETURN TO A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN THAN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE COMING WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES OR
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE NOT EXPECTED HERE FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 25/18Z AT ALL TAF
SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO TSRA...MAINLY AT TJBQ...TJMZ...AND TJSJ BEFORE 24/23Z. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO
15K FT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AND ALL AREAS ARE BELOW
7 FEET AND 22 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE YET
A LITTLE MORE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS MAY YET BE ENCOUNTERED AS IS TYPICAL OF SUMMER HERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 79 89 / 30 40 20 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 40 30 20 20
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