Updated Models Ex TD 10

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
jax

Updated Models Ex TD 10

#1 Postby jax » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:06 pm

They waited over 24 hours.. but here they are...
Looks GOM'er-ish

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#2 Postby rockyman » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:08 pm

That info is in the main TD10 thread...was release a few hours ago :D
0 likes   
Top
jax

#3 Postby jax » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:10 pm

rockyman wrote:That info is in the main TD10 thread...was release a few hours ago :D


yeah... but who could find that?
59 pages long...
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#4 Postby rockyman » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:13 pm

I found it...I'm guessing this thread will be locked...but maybe not... :D
0 likes   
Top
jax

#5 Postby jax » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:14 pm

all four of the newer model runs have it moving below FL
possibly through the straight...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: Updated Models Ex TD 10

#6 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:18 pm

jax wrote:They waited over 24 hours.. but here they are...
Looks GOM'er-ish

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm


I don't think that initialzation point is right - too far advanced.

If we're going to get a new LLC, I'd expect it to be back nearer the convection and the MLC approaching 20.5N 65W.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ohiostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1582
Age: 40
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 2:51 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
Contact:
Contact ohiostorm

#7 Postby ohiostorm » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:19 pm

10L now back on NRL site.
0 likes   
Top
jax

Re: Updated Models Ex TD 10

#8 Postby jax » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:19 pm

x-y-no wrote:
jax wrote:They waited over 24 hours.. but here they are...
Looks GOM'er-ish

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm


I don't think that initialzation point is right - too far advanced.

If we're going to get a new LLC, I'd expect it to be back nearer the convection and the MLC approaching 20.5N 65W.


agreed... the TWO mentions a more westerly direction though...
not WNW...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#9 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:25 pm

Actually, I just took a look at the higher-res visible imagery, and I think I may have been wrong.

What look on the floater like it's a MLC, doesn't look that way at higher resolution.

And it does appear that the wave axis is now extending north of the Mona Passage. Still a fairly weak wave, though.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#10 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:29 pm

There's a very weak center near 20.2-68.1

Direction west...
0 likes   
Top
jax

#11 Postby jax » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:31 pm

what is the sheer forcast in the area?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Wein and 113 guests