Rita will hit some cooler waters starting tonight ...

[BReb]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5262go.jpg

Should be interesting to see how she maintains her strength. According to this heat content map, there are two comparatively cooler patches of water, as well as the cooler shelf water, that are between Rita and her projected area of landfall.

Also, there's not much talk about the dry air over Texas- anyone think that will have a large effect?

[skysummit]

Uh....I think it's the complete opposite. She's in the "cooler" waters right now and moving toward the warmer waters.

[arcticfire]

yeah dunno where this heading for cooler waters myth came from.

[canegrl04]

Its utterly astounding what she has done so far and hasn't reached the warmest waters yet

[cjrciadt]

The blue on the first map is far deeper water not cooler the surface temps are right 83-85 around the entire GOM.

[djtil]

yeah dunno where this heading for cooler waters myth came from.

the NHC and computer models.....wouldnt really call it a myth based on multiple NHC discussions making reference to it.

[BReb]

Your graphic doesn't provide the proper positioning for Rita- she's almost due south of the Alabama/Florida border now. And I said TONIGHT- in several hours she will be effected by the dark blue patch you see due south of central Louisiana.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5262go.jpg

[arcticfire]

yeah dunno where this heading for cooler waters myth came from.

the NHC and computer models.....wouldnt really call it a myth based on multiple NHC discussions making reference to it.

That fine but I have yet to see any charts showing cooler waters in the wgom. Every map I see shows the gom to be largly the same temp. The west being warmer if anything to the east.

[BReb]

"The blue on the first map is far deeper water not cooler"

No, that's a model for heat content- you see the bar along the side that talks about kilojoules/ cm2? That's a heat, not depth measurement.

[cjrciadt]

"The blue on the first map is far deeper water not cooler"

No, that's a model for heat content- you see the bar along the side that talks about kilojoules/ cm2? That's a heat, not depth measurement.

Youre right I was just look at another map to post now, you are correct.

[arcticfire]

Your graphic doesn't provide the proper positioning for Rita- she's almost due south of the Alabama/Florida border now. And I said TONIGHT- in several hours she will be effected by the dark blue patch you see due south of central Louisiana.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5262go.jpg

Question , what exactly does TCHP mean? Cause I'm having trouble reading that map.

[ocracoke]

"The blue on the first map is far deeper water not cooler"

No, that's a model for heat content- you see the bar along the side that talks about kilojoules/ cm2? That's a heat, not depth measurement.

Actually, tropical cyclone heat potential takes into account the depth of the warm water as well, not just sea surface temperatures.

[skysummit]

Your graphic doesn't provide the proper positioning for Rita- she's almost due south of the Alabama/Florida border now. And I said TONIGHT- in several hours she will be effected by the dark blue patch you see due south of central Louisiana.

Don't pay attention to the position of Rita. I didn't put it there...it's like that on the website. The map just shows the warmest waters of the gulf are still well west of where Rita is right now.

[arcticfire]

Hmm , from what I'm reading about the chart in question (TCHP) , hot pockets might influince how fast a storm intesifies , but the examples given seem to indicate cooler TCHP does not nessisarly corispond to weakening.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/images/HHPOMB.jpg

[alicia-w]

that water temp chart is also two days old.

[skysummit]

Oh my, it is! But...do you really think the water temperature cooled off any with nothing but high pressure sitting on top of the gulf? If anything, it warmed a few more tenths of a degree.