The most amazing statistic...

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CrazyC83
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The most amazing statistic...

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 19, 2006 11:44 pm

I think the most amazing statistic is the dropoff in storm damage from 2005 to 2006 - from catastrophic to calmer than normal for even a below-normal season. That will be best seen in the hurricane name lists...we go from a record 5 names retired (with decent cases for at least one other) to likely a list remaining intact for 2012.

The last time a list remained intact was 1997.
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Re: The most amazing statistic...

#2 Postby hial2 » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:42 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I think the most amazing statistic is the dropoff in storm damage from 2005 to 2006 - from catastrophic to calmer than normal for even a below-normal season. That will be best seen in the hurricane name lists...we go from a record 5 names retired (with decent cases for at least one other) to likely a list remaining intact for 2012.

The last time a list remained intact was 1997.


If anyone knows how, please forward this to CITiZENS INSURANCE in Florida!!!! :grrr:
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Re: The most amazing statistic...

#3 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:15 pm

hial2 wrote: If anyone knows how, please forward this to CITiZENS INSURANCE in Florida!!!! :grrr:


Citizens Property Insurance Corporation
Corporate Offices
101 North Monroe Street, Suite 1000
Tallahassee, Florida 32301

Very interesting there is not an email address on their site.
Image



Scott
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Re: The most amazing statistic...

#4 Postby AussieMark » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I think the most amazing statistic is the dropoff in storm damage from 2005 to 2006 - from catastrophic to calmer than normal for even a below-normal season. That will be best seen in the hurricane name lists...we go from a record 5 names retired (with decent cases for at least one other) to likely a list remaining intact for 2012.

The last time a list remained intact was 1997.



which storms u referring to here?
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#5 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 20, 2006 7:46 pm

I'd say he means Emily.
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#6 Postby Deputy Van Halen » Mon Nov 20, 2006 8:23 pm

The last time a list remained intact was 1997


Interestingly, there are a couple EPac storms (John and Lane) that might be good candidates for retirement. If I read correctly, there has been only one name ever retired in EPac for the damage it did. Anybody have an idea how likely John and Lane are for retirement? Does the same group decide this that decides retirements in the Atlantic basin?
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#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:00 pm

Deputy Van Halen wrote:
The last time a list remained intact was 1997


Interestingly, there are a couple EPac storms (John and Lane) that might be good candidates for retirement. If I read correctly, there has been only one name ever retired in EPac for the damage it did. Anybody have an idea how likely John and Lane are for retirement? Does the same group decide this that decides retirements in the Atlantic basin?


Yes it is, and you are right, John and Lane have much better cases for retirement than any Atlantic storm. (Interestingly, the last time that no Atlantic storm was retired, an EPac storm - Pauline - was) Still, it is not a sure-fire bet that either of those two will be retired.
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#8 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Nov 21, 2006 1:06 pm

Deputy Van Halen wrote:
The last time a list remained intact was 1997


Interestingly, there are a couple EPac storms (John and Lane) that might be good candidates for retirement. If I read correctly, there has been only one name ever retired in EPac for the damage it did. Anybody have an idea how likely John and Lane are for retirement? Does the same group decide this that decides retirements in the Atlantic basin?


There's been a few EPAC names retired for their damage; Kenna in 2002, Pauline in 1997, Ismael in 1995, Fefa in 1991 (damage in Hawaii), and Fico in 1978 (damage in Hawaii), and two CPAC names were retired as well (Iniki and Iwa).
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#9 Postby Deputy Van Halen » Tue Nov 21, 2006 6:46 pm

There's been a few EPAC names retired for their damage; Kenna in 2002, Pauline in 1997, Ismael in 1995, Fefa in 1991 (damage in Hawaii), and Fico in 1978 (damage in Hawaii), and two CPAC names were retired as well (Iniki and Iwa).


Looks like the NOAA folks dropped the ball on their website, then. They list only three retired EPac names, two of those being Adolph and Israel for political correctness reasons.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B3.html

I used to think that they ran a tight ship there at the NOAA website, but they seem to screw up simple stuff like this with dismaying frequency.
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#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Nov 21, 2006 7:23 pm

Deputy Van Halen wrote:
There's been a few EPAC names retired for their damage; Kenna in 2002, Pauline in 1997, Ismael in 1995, Fefa in 1991 (damage in Hawaii), and Fico in 1978 (damage in Hawaii), and two CPAC names were retired as well (Iniki and Iwa).


Looks like the NOAA folks dropped the ball on their website, then. They list only three retired EPac names, two of those being Adolph and Israel for political correctness reasons.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B3.html

I used to think that they ran a tight ship there at the NOAA website, but they seem to screw up simple stuff like this with dismaying frequency.


I just emailed them about that.
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#11 Postby AussieMark » Tue Nov 21, 2006 7:43 pm

Pauline was a obvious candidate in 1997
when hundreds were killed by mudslides unleashed by Pauline around Acapulco and surrounding areas
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#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Mar 17, 2007 9:21 pm

Bumping this thread, since the meeting is less than 2 weeks away. I still think the 2006 lists will remain intact in 2012.
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#13 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Mar 18, 2007 1:00 am

Retirement of John and Lane will depend upon whether or not Mexico requests it. Although John brought heavy rains to SE AZ, there was no major damage in the US. John in 1994 was not retired despite being the (then) strongest ever storm to transit CPAC and the longest lived Tropical Cyclone on record-tracking from EPAC to CPAC into WPAC and then back into CPAC. One to wonder about is IOKE because although it did not hit anything in CPAC, it was a very historical storm-the first to develop and attain Cat 5 intensity in CPAC and the strongest ever in CPAC.

Steve
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#14 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Mar 18, 2007 1:24 am

Aslkahuna wrote:Retirement of John and Lane will depend upon whether or not Mexico requests it. Although John brought heavy rains to SE AZ, there was no major damage in the US. John in 1994 was not retired despite being the (then) strongest ever storm to transit CPAC and the longest lived Tropical Cyclone on record-tracking from EPAC to CPAC into WPAC and then back into CPAC. One to wonder about is IOKE because although it did not hit anything in CPAC, it was a very historical storm-the first to develop and attain Cat 5 intensity in CPAC and the strongest ever in CPAC.

Steve


I remember Typhoon Vamei formed near the equator in 2001 and Vamei got retired even though it did little damage.
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#15 Postby AussieMark » Sun Mar 18, 2007 6:06 am

I thought storms are retired based on impacts not intensity reasons?

i.e in 1997 Linda was not retired which was the strongest eastern pacific hurricane on record. But Pauline was due to the cataclysmic damage suffered around the mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero
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#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Mar 18, 2007 9:54 am

you CANNOT make major insurance rate changes based upon a SINGLE season.

Rates are based upon the long term risk, not transient developments. I fail to see why this issue is so contentious, not sure if it is a lack of understanding, or just not wanting to pay a lot (which I fully understand as I can be tight with my wallet as well)
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#17 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Mar 18, 2007 12:37 pm

AussieMark wrote:I thought storms are retired based on impacts not intensity reasons?

i.e in 1997 Linda was not retired which was the strongest eastern pacific hurricane on record. But Pauline was due to the cataclysmic damage suffered around the mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero


Generally, that is true. I know in the EPAC, they retired the name Adolf and Israel, but it was for political reasons. Adolf because of Adolf Hitler and Israel because of the nation of Israel.
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#18 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Mar 18, 2007 5:56 pm

I don't consider Israel a retired name as it was never used.
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#19 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Mar 18, 2007 6:22 pm

No it was never used even though it's a common enough male name in Mexico. We let the Arabs win that one. Some historical storms are also retired-the case above noting that Vamei was retired even though it did no serious damage but mainly because it is going to be the subject of resaerch for years given the fact that it was a typhoon at 1.5N.

Steve
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#20 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Mar 18, 2007 7:43 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:No it was never used even though it's a common enough male name in Mexico. We let the Arabs win that one. Some historical storms are also retired-the case above noting that Vamei was retired even though it did no serious damage but mainly because it is going to be the subject of resaerch for years given the fact that it was a typhoon at 1.5N.

Steve


True. I knew quite a few Hispanics named Israel.
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