As I come back from vacation,I found another Atlantic hurricane season forecast ,this one from the folks of Tropical Storm Risk in which they see an active 2008 season,although a little down from their previous one.
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/
TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Forecast=15/8/4 / ACE=136
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
HURRICANELONNY
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
- Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL
Re: TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Atlantic Forecast=15/8/4
I read part of TSR April forecast. Except for landfall. Which I think is a joke this time of year. Anyways he predicts the SST of the MDR to be cooler then previously forecast. I wonder where he gets that info and that probably would mean the trade winds would have to be stronger then forecast to cause upwelling. Looking at the area TSR is explaining. They would be right right now but that could change in time.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 7.2008.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 7.2008.gif
0 likes
Re: TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Atlantic Forecast=15/8/4
HURRICANELONNY wrote:I read part of TSR April forecast. Except for landfall. Which I think is a joke this time of year. Anyways he predicts the SST of the MDR to be cooler then previously forecast. I wonder where he gets that info and that probably would mean the trade winds would have to be stronger then forecast to cause upwelling. Looking at the area TSR is explaining. They would be right right now but that could change in time.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 7.2008.gif
Wouldn't this mean LESS re curving storms?
0 likes
-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11162
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: Re:
hial2 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:fact789 wrote:Thats also what the current s2k number averages is.
Lol..I think S2K should put out our own forecast
Hey Ivan..which one of the motley crew picture is you??..
The middle one...
0 likes
-
Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: Re:
Ivanhater wrote:fact789 wrote:Thats also what the current s2k number averages is.
Lol..I think S2K should put out our own forecast
Honestly, that is not a bad idea. This place is full of weather geeks, I think we could actually make one!
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145840
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Atlantic Forecast=15/8/4
We have the Tropical Analysis forum, viewforum.php?f=29 where our pro mets and the knowleagble amateurs can post their own forecasts instead of having storm2k make forecasts.The only thing we have is the forecast poll for the members that can participate posting their set of numbers.
0 likes
-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22989
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Atlantic Forecast=15/8/4
I don't see any significant changes from their earlier forecast, which was also 15/8/4. Phil Klotzbach will be putting out the new Colorado State 2008 forecast tomorrow from the hurricane conference in the Bahamas. Phil and Dr. Gray indicated in their talks at the NHC last week that conditions now look more favorable for development this season than they did prior to their last outlook in December. So they don't plan on reducing the numbers. They'll probably increase the total by another named storm.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145840
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Atlantic Forecast=15/8/4
wxman57 wrote:I don't see any significant changes from their earlier forecast, which was also 15/8/4. Phil Klotzbach will be putting out the new Colorado State 2008 forecast tomorrow from the hurricane conference in the Bahamas. Phil and Dr. Gray indicated in their talks at the NHC last week that conditions now look more favorable for development this season than they did prior to their last outlook in December. So they don't plan on reducing the numbers. They'll probably increase the total by another named storm.
Well 57,they did but by 2.Interesting that both Tropical Storm Risk and Klotzbach are on the same page in terms of the factors that they see as favorable.
0 likes