Big heads up for anyone Galveston, TX to Lafayette, LA...

[Steve]

Following up on SF's posts the last couple of days, that is the ECMWF surface forecast valid for Wed. 9/3/03. It's predicting a system off the UT Coast from 4-7 days CRAWLING toward landfall. SST's are pretty warm out there. As noted by SF, ETA jumped on board as well but is a little quicker with the moisture stream. I can't make a call as to what intensity could develop out there, but TS-Cat 2 stands to reason as per recent Western Gulf action (Bill, Claudette, Erika, Lili, Isidore, Fay). But the threat is for insane rainfall amounts down the road.

Stay tuned.

Steve

[GalvestonDuck]

Argh

[bfez1]

Here ya go, ticka
You ready????

[Lindaloo]

Yep ticka... you may not get away from this one.

[Guest]

OMG - I need to go on a diet - I got a big bullseye on my rumpus for this one!!!!

Seriously - i will be watching this one closely - over the holiday weekend.

Stayed Tuned.

[southerngale]

Hmmm...right on our doorstep and CRAWLING toward landfall? Big rainmaker??? :o

Of course it's just a model run...

[Steve]

Naturally gale. But if you go back and read some of StormsFury's recent threads, the ECMWF has been relatively consistent for several runs in a row. The ETA is somewhat backing off on development, but the NOGAPS is now coming on board with some development off the LA coast. This is next week's problem, so we'll get to watch it brew up, simmer, cook and then see where it goes from there. It is IMPOSSIBLE to guess intensity from this far out, but the potential is there. I'm not saying 2 + 2 = 4 so much as I'm saying if you figure a developing system out over that part of the Gulf for anywhere between 48 and 96 hours, and then if you add in that the water temperatures mostly in the 28-30C range...

Steve

[Lindaloo]

HONK!! HONK @ ticka LOL!!

[BreinLa]

Huh Lafayette, La. is where I live, cancel that lol

[Anonymous]

Like I always say, You gotta be careful what you wish for.

You wanted a GOM storm, You're gonna get a GOM storm.

You might as well enjoy it.

TD10/Fabian might be headed for the East Coast. Might not be as much of a Fish Storm as the models were suggesting earlier.

I want it to hit N VA with tons of rain. I'm wishing for it and I hope I get it. I am sick and tired of MD, PA, and other lucky recipients always getting all the big rain tallies!!

I want Woodbridge to get some rain like that.

As I stand here today:

You will NEVER hear me complain about "insane" amounts of rain!!!! Ever.

I really enjoy HUGE amounts of torrentially training rain!! The only kind of weather I enjoy more is a frigid, stationary blizzard at -5 degrees with 50mph winds dumping 30 to 50 inches of snow in thundersnows and outright heavy stratiform snow bands.

However, for ticka's and other people's sake down in the GOM, I hope you get some good excitement, but no more than 3 to 6 inches of rain. You don't need floods down there and you sure don't need them anywhere near New Orleans.


-Jeb

[GalvestonDuck]

Okay, so who's the wise guy standing at the wishing well throwing their two cents in there instead of posting it here like a good little S2K'er?

Seriously, is someone wishing for this?

[PTrackerLA]

Lol brein, we need to watch this one the gulf is very prime for development.

[bfez1]

http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/WWL0828 ... ac44c.html

[GalvestonDuck]

http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/WWL082803tropics.4ebac44c.html

Posting it so people don't have to register to read it:

Tropics bear watching as tropical wave moves into the Gulf
12:46 PM CDT on Thursday, August 28, 2003

WWLTV.com

A tropical wave currently south of Cuba could be some cause for concern over the holiday weekend as it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico, according to Channel Four Meteorologist John Gumm.

“The area of disturbed weather is expected to drift into the Gulf by Friday afternoon or evening,” said Gumm.

Gumm also said conditions in the Gulf are favorable towards the system developing further if given enough time.

“Whether it becomes a tropical storm or not, heavy rains could soak Southeast Louisiana next week,” he said.

Gumm also mentioned that Tropical Depression #10 is currently in the Atlantic, and that he expected it to be upgraded to a tropical storm Thursday afternoon.

However that system would not reach the Caribbean until sometime next week.

[PTrackerLA]

Thanks for posting that Duck, someone's gonna be wet along the gulf coast at the very least!

[bfez1]

Sorry, duck I should have done that.
Thank you!

[GalvestonDuck]

No prob, Bfez! It just bugs me when those news sites make us register, so I thought I'd make it easier.

Clicking through the NWS stuff...thought I'd post what they have to say also:

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
205 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2003

DO NOT EXPECT TOMORROW AND SATURDAY TO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BOTH DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC AFT
MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY DUE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE CF NW OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY
UNCERTAIN. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OR THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED TODAY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THIS AREA MAY BE IN THE VERY EARLY STAGES OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF BY SAT
/EARLY SUN AND THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE NW
WOULD ALLOW FOR OUR WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY ON SUN AND ALLOW DRIER
SFC AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
DAYTIME COOLING IS EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW
DEGREES ON SUN AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. EVEN IF SE TX EXPERIENCES NO
EFFECTS FROM THE ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE AREA WILL LIE
WITHIN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN MID LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED EAST AND WEST OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT CHC POPS.


SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
120 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2003

GFS HAS THE BIG POLAR VORTEX, CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY, INFLUENCING
THE MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND WEATHER. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EATEN
AWAY BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES...AND...BY AN
EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS BY
TOMORROW, AND PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL STATES. THE SEMI PERMANENT WEST TEXAS TROUGH BECOME
ACTIVATED AS A PACIFIC FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. IT APPEARS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO TEXAS. BUT THE DRIER CONTINENTAL TROPICAL AIRMASS
MOVES INTO TEXAS ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE EASTERLY WAVE SHOWS UP.
THE TWO ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE AND ENHANCE EACH OTHER SATURDAY.
EXPECTING THICKNESS PACKING AHEAD OF FRONT TO KEEP MAX TEMPS ABV
NORMAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF TUESDAY WITH
A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY.

THANKS HOU, CRP & SJT FOR COORDINATION.


COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
146 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2003

SHORT-TERM(TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT)...MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING
VIA THE SEABREEZE WILL BARELY OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 1000-850HPA Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE ALSO A NOTABLE NEGATIVE. ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING
OVERNIGHT(PREDOMINANTLY WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE) IN HIGH PWAT AIR TO
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WATERS SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE. FRIDAY WILL BE NEARLY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A SUBSIDENT
REGIME COUNTERACTING WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING VIA THE SEABREEZE.
500-300HPA/300-200HPA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA
THOUGH AND JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TUTT
AXIS APPROACHES THE COASTLINE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONGER 500-300HPA/300-200HPA
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WARRANTS CHANCE POPS OFFSHORE AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A THERMAL CYCLONE OVER MEXICO.
PERSISTENCE WILL GENERALLY BE APPLIED TO TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
DEVIATIONS IN DEFERENCE TO MOISTURE CONTENT. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG PROBABLE IN FEEBLE NEAR-SURFACE WIND REGIME BUT NOT
OVERLY DRAMATIC DUE TO UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LONG-TERM (SAT THRU THURS)...MAIN QUESTION IS THE HANDLING OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. GFS IS ADAMANT AT
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE ETA KEEPS
THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. BASED ON UPPER AIR PATTERN...WILL
RELY A BIT MORE ON THE ETA MODEL AND KEEP THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.
UPPER LOW WILL STILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND HELPS TO
BRING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN. GFS IS SHOWING THIS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL...WITH 00Z NOGAPS AND UKMET LESS
AGGRESSIVE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE NORTH WIND FLOW FOR THE TIME BEING
AND KEEP AND GO WITH A MORE OF AN EAST IF NOT NORTHEAST WIND FOR
NOW. LONG-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING DIFFICULTY AS OF LATE AND
SEEM TO BE ERRATIC AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THE FROPA. GFS IS AGAIN TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM DOWN LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OTHER LONG-RANGE MODELS NOT SHOWING THIS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FROPA FOR NOW...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE GENERALLY GONE HIGHER THAN
MOS ON HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE AVN/MRF MOS SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
AS DO NOT EXPECT FROPA. THURSDAY TEMPS MORE IN THE CLIMO RANGE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2003

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING EAST ACROSS THE GULF...
TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS IS PROVIDING THE SE FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF...AND ACROSS THE AREA. WSR88D SHOWING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS NEVER
DYING OFF THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW EARLY DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 12Z LCH SOUNDING PRETTY MOIST WITH
PW OF 2.10"...LI OF -7.4...POS BUOYANCY OF 3275 J/KG...AND
CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 86F. BEING THAT HERE IN LCH...WE HAVE
T=86/TD=80...THE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TODAY. SO...THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF 50-60% LOOKS REASONABLE...AND SEE NO NEED TO
CHANGE. WILL UPDATE THE HIGH TEMPS...AS WE ARE ONLY TWO DEGREES
AWAY FROM IT NOW IN LCH.

[CajunMama]

Nooooooooooooooooooo! No storm for me!

CajunMama Puffs, puffs, blows, blows that storm to Ticka and Southergale!!!!!!! LOL