
No prob, Bfez! It just bugs me when those news sites make us register, so I thought I'd make it easier.
Clicking through the NWS stuff...thought I'd post what they have to say also:
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
205 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2003
DO NOT EXPECT TOMORROW AND SATURDAY TO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BOTH DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC AFT
MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY DUE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE CF NW OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY
UNCERTAIN. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OR THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED TODAY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THIS AREA MAY BE IN THE VERY EARLY STAGES OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF BY SAT
/EARLY SUN AND THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE NW
WOULD ALLOW FOR OUR WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY ON SUN AND ALLOW DRIER
SFC AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
DAYTIME COOLING IS EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW
DEGREES ON SUN AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. EVEN IF SE TX EXPERIENCES NO
EFFECTS FROM THE ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE AREA WILL LIE
WITHIN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN MID LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED EAST AND WEST OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT CHC POPS.
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
120 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2003
GFS HAS THE BIG POLAR VORTEX, CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY, INFLUENCING
THE MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND WEATHER. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EATEN
AWAY BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES...AND...BY AN
EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS BY
TOMORROW, AND PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL STATES. THE SEMI PERMANENT WEST TEXAS TROUGH BECOME
ACTIVATED AS A PACIFIC FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. IT APPEARS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO TEXAS. BUT THE DRIER CONTINENTAL TROPICAL AIRMASS
MOVES INTO TEXAS ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE EASTERLY WAVE SHOWS UP.
THE TWO ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE AND ENHANCE EACH OTHER SATURDAY.
EXPECTING THICKNESS PACKING AHEAD OF FRONT TO KEEP MAX TEMPS ABV
NORMAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF TUESDAY WITH
A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY.
THANKS HOU, CRP & SJT FOR COORDINATION.
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
146 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2003
SHORT-TERM(TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT)...MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING
VIA THE SEABREEZE WILL BARELY OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 1000-850HPA Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE ALSO A NOTABLE NEGATIVE. ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING
OVERNIGHT(PREDOMINANTLY WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE) IN HIGH PWAT AIR TO
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WATERS SPREADING TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE. FRIDAY WILL BE NEARLY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A SUBSIDENT
REGIME COUNTERACTING WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING VIA THE SEABREEZE.
500-300HPA/300-200HPA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA
THOUGH AND JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TUTT
AXIS APPROACHES THE COASTLINE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONGER 500-300HPA/300-200HPA
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WARRANTS CHANCE POPS OFFSHORE AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A THERMAL CYCLONE OVER MEXICO.
PERSISTENCE WILL GENERALLY BE APPLIED TO TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
DEVIATIONS IN DEFERENCE TO MOISTURE CONTENT. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG PROBABLE IN FEEBLE NEAR-SURFACE WIND REGIME BUT NOT
OVERLY DRAMATIC DUE TO UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LONG-TERM (SAT THRU THURS)...MAIN QUESTION IS THE HANDLING OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. GFS IS ADAMANT AT
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE ETA KEEPS
THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. BASED ON UPPER AIR PATTERN...WILL
RELY A BIT MORE ON THE ETA MODEL AND KEEP THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.
UPPER LOW WILL STILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND HELPS TO
BRING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN. GFS IS SHOWING THIS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL...WITH 00Z NOGAPS AND UKMET LESS
AGGRESSIVE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE NORTH WIND FLOW FOR THE TIME BEING
AND KEEP AND GO WITH A MORE OF AN EAST IF NOT NORTHEAST WIND FOR
NOW. LONG-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING DIFFICULTY AS OF LATE AND
SEEM TO BE ERRATIC AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THE FROPA. GFS IS AGAIN TRYING TO BRING A SYSTEM DOWN LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OTHER LONG-RANGE MODELS NOT SHOWING THIS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FROPA FOR NOW...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE GENERALLY GONE HIGHER THAN
MOS ON HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE AVN/MRF MOS SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
AS DO NOT EXPECT FROPA. THURSDAY TEMPS MORE IN THE CLIMO RANGE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2003
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING EAST ACROSS THE GULF...
TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS IS PROVIDING THE SE FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF...AND ACROSS THE AREA. WSR88D SHOWING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS NEVER
DYING OFF THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW EARLY DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 12Z LCH SOUNDING PRETTY MOIST WITH
PW OF 2.10"...LI OF -7.4...POS BUOYANCY OF 3275 J/KG...AND
CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 86F. BEING THAT HERE IN LCH...WE HAVE
T=86/TD=80...THE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TODAY. SO...THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF 50-60% LOOKS REASONABLE...AND SEE NO NEED TO
CHANGE. WILL UPDATE THE HIGH TEMPS...AS WE ARE ONLY TWO DEGREES
AWAY FROM IT NOW IN LCH.