2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LAF92]

Seeint a little more of a signal on the GEFS/ EPS for some development in the western caribbean/ southern gulf in the 10-12 day range, timing matches up with the MJO moving into the atlantic basin, worth watching, if we get any impactful storms this season, its most certainly coming from the western caribbean/ CAG

The 12z EPS is the most active I’ve seen all year for the gulf

[Stratton23]

LarryWx yep lets see if the signal sticks on future runs, but even that far out it definitely is worth paying some attention too

[lsuhurricane]

Easily the most action I've seen from any model suite for the Gulf this season.

[IcyTundra]

Easily the most action I've seen from any model suite for the Gulf this season.

https://i.ibb.co/XrNNLfcF/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif

More bullish than the GEFS but it is notable that both of the major ensemble suites are showing an elevated chance of development in the WCAR/GOM in that 10-14 day range. The Gulf and WCAR have seen zero activity this season so it would make sense for something to finally develop there at some point this season.

[jlauderdal]

Seeint a little more of a signal on the GEFS/ EPS for some development in the western caribbean/ southern gulf in the 10-12 day range, timing matches up with the MJO moving into the atlantic basin, worth watching, if we get any impactful storms this season, its most certainly coming from the western caribbean/ CAG

The 12z EPS is the most active I’ve seen all year for the gulf

Plenty of Gulf energy that needs to be transferred. Seems like a matter of time.

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[Stratton23]

Will be interesting to see if the EPS keeps showing a signal in the western gulf, will say i see a lot of widespread 31 degree isotherms in the western gulf which is around 90 degrees Fahrenheit, lots of untapped OHC available, will be interesting to see if globe models start to show anything in that region over this next week

[LarryWx]

LarryWx yep lets see if the signal sticks on future runs, but even that far out it definitely is worth paying some attention too

Not surprisingly after a sudden uptick late in week 2 on yesterday’s 12Z EPS for the W Gulf, the 0Z backed down notably, especially for TX threats although it still has a couple of W Gulf TCs with a 955 into LA and a 990 mb into MX. The 12Z had had ~8 TS+ including a 927 into LA, 968 into TX, and 961 into MX along with 3 hurricanes threatening at the end still in the Gulf.

[Stratton23]

I think we will see that uptrend again once the MJO moves in, phases 1/2 argue for more western caribbean/ gulf activity, so wouldn’t be surprised if we see ensembles start to light up that part of the basin in a week or so

[LAF92]

Like the operational models do 10+ days out the ensembles do the same thing where from run to run there will be swings in signals. I expect to see that over the next few days.

[eastcoastFL]

Easily the most action I've seen from any model suite for the Gulf this season.

https://i.ibb.co/XrNNLfcF/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif

More bullish than the GEFS but it is notable that both of the major ensemble suites are showing an elevated chance of development in the WCAR/GOM in that 10-14 day range. The Gulf and WCAR have seen zero activity this season so it would make sense for something to finally develop there at some point this season.

Might be a busy late September and October for the GOM.

[LarryWx]

I think we will see that uptrend again once the MJO moves in, phases 1/2 argue for more western caribbean/ gulf activity, so wouldn’t be surprised if we see ensembles start to light up that part of the basin in a week or so

I also suspect it will. But in the meantime, none of the major 12Z ensemble runs are anywhere near as active as yesterday’s scary looking 12Z EPS for the W Gulf. Neither were the 0Z runs as earlier mentioned.

[Stratton23]

LarryWx yup its a pretty weak signal right now, but the ensembles do hint at the CAG becoming more of a player in mid september, I would be absolutely stunned if something doesnt wind up in the gulf eventually , too much OHC just sitting their, it has to be released at some point

[TomballEd]

Warm water alone doesn't mean a storm will form. It helps, but it doesn't guarantee it.