2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LAF92]

Seeint a little more of a signal on the GEFS/ EPS for some development in the western caribbean/ southern gulf in the 10-12 day range, timing matches up with the MJO moving into the atlantic basin, worth watching, if we get any impactful storms this season, its most certainly coming from the western caribbean/ CAG

The 12z EPS is the most active I’ve seen all year for the gulf

[Stratton23]

LarryWx yep lets see if the signal sticks on future runs, but even that far out it definitely is worth paying some attention too

[lsuhurricane]

Easily the most action I've seen from any model suite for the Gulf this season.

[IcyTundra]

Easily the most action I've seen from any model suite for the Gulf this season.

https://i.ibb.co/XrNNLfcF/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif

More bullish than the GEFS but it is notable that both of the major ensemble suites are showing an elevated chance of development in the WCAR/GOM in that 10-14 day range. The Gulf and WCAR have seen zero activity this season so it would make sense for something to finally develop there at some point this season.

[jlauderdal]

Seeint a little more of a signal on the GEFS/ EPS for some development in the western caribbean/ southern gulf in the 10-12 day range, timing matches up with the MJO moving into the atlantic basin, worth watching, if we get any impactful storms this season, its most certainly coming from the western caribbean/ CAG

The 12z EPS is the most active I’ve seen all year for the gulf

Plenty of Gulf energy that needs to be transferred. Seems like a matter of time.

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[Stratton23]

Will be interesting to see if the EPS keeps showing a signal in the western gulf, will say i see a lot of widespread 31 degree isotherms in the western gulf which is around 90 degrees Fahrenheit, lots of untapped OHC available, will be interesting to see if globe models start to show anything in that region over this next week