18z gfs on African wave

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

18z gfs on African wave

#1 Postby Vortex » Fri Jul 16, 2004 6:07 pm

Model still maintains identity of wave as it passes through the northern antilles and over Puerto Rico on days 6-7. Wave/low then continues to move wnw through the bahamas and S Fl by days 9-10.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148496
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2004 6:15 pm

I would like to see the other global models imputs to then pay more interest to it but since it is only one model nothing will happen.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
ameriwx2003
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 980
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:45 am

#3 Postby ameriwx2003 » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:02 pm

Luis.
Agreed the GFS is notorious for jumping the gun with early season systems . It is of some interest to me though to see the EURO picking up on the wave though... Plenty of time to watch :):)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

#4 Postby jabber » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:07 pm

Well it show it getting close to me.... I can relax :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
USAwx1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 936
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Marineland, FL

Re: 18z gfs on African wave

#5 Postby USAwx1 » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:56 pm

Vortex wrote:Model still maintains identity of wave as it passes through the northern antilles and over Puerto Rico on days 6-7. Wave/low then continues to move wnw through the bahamas and S Fl by days 9-10.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif


This is the 18z (off hour) run of the OPERATIONAL GFS past 240 hours. VERY unreliable.

I would wait a few more days until it comes into the range of the rest of the global models before getting excited over anything.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23080
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#6 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 16, 2004 11:20 pm

The 18Z run did the same thing yesterday, then it lost the wave completely at 00Z, 6z, and 12Z. Interesting, but I'm not laying any money down yet. Besides, I have a trip to New Orleans scheduled for July 28-29 to speak at a hurricane seminar. I can't go if there's a storm approaching.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 55 guests