18z gfs on African wave

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Vortex
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18z gfs on African wave

#1 Postby Vortex » Fri Jul 16, 2004 6:07 pm

Model still maintains identity of wave as it passes through the northern antilles and over Puerto Rico on days 6-7. Wave/low then continues to move wnw through the bahamas and S Fl by days 9-10.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2004 6:15 pm

I would like to see the other global models imputs to then pay more interest to it but since it is only one model nothing will happen.
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#3 Postby ameriwx2003 » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:02 pm

Luis.
Agreed the GFS is notorious for jumping the gun with early season systems . It is of some interest to me though to see the EURO picking up on the wave though... Plenty of time to watch :):)
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#4 Postby jabber » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:07 pm

Well it show it getting close to me.... I can relax :)
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Re: 18z gfs on African wave

#5 Postby USAwx1 » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:56 pm

Vortex wrote:Model still maintains identity of wave as it passes through the northern antilles and over Puerto Rico on days 6-7. Wave/low then continues to move wnw through the bahamas and S Fl by days 9-10.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif


This is the 18z (off hour) run of the OPERATIONAL GFS past 240 hours. VERY unreliable.

I would wait a few more days until it comes into the range of the rest of the global models before getting excited over anything.
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#6 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 16, 2004 11:20 pm

The 18Z run did the same thing yesterday, then it lost the wave completely at 00Z, 6z, and 12Z. Interesting, but I'm not laying any money down yet. Besides, I have a trip to New Orleans scheduled for July 28-29 to speak at a hurricane seminar. I can't go if there's a storm approaching.
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