wave entering windwards

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rbaker

wave entering windwards

#1 Postby rbaker » Fri Aug 20, 2004 3:43 pm

The wave around the Grenada are at about 12.0n lat seems to flaring up a bit. Was looking at 1900z reports from down there and St. Lucia had a 22 mph sustained wind with a 52 mph gust, some of the other Barbados, St. Vincent had same kind of sustained winds, with some rain showers, pressures around 1013, 1014 mb, but that may be due to typical afternoon falls.
Sat pictures looks to moving it wnw maybe 20 mph. Just something for potential, besides the ones out there off of Africa :eek:
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#2 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 20, 2004 4:06 pm

Yeah, convection looks on the rise slightly but the system is pretty close to the SA coast... I can't find any hint of rotation and it looks to be fighting some shear... but its the closest thing around at the moment.. also a real nice flare up of convection NW of Panama, probably go over to the EPAC ... its just a waiting game now
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#3 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 20, 2004 4:50 pm

Some of the long range models had this near 63 W a week ago, but a little further north and better developed. Can't see the NHC issuing a 5 day forecast track until it becomes a little better organized though.
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#4 Postby TS Zack » Fri Aug 20, 2004 5:21 pm

No circulation at this time. Plus the system is very close to land and Venezuela will not help it out with them mountains and dry air filtering into the system. Same reson why Earl died out.
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Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 20, 2004 5:51 pm

TS Zack wrote:No circulation at this time. Plus the system is very close to land and Venezuela will not help it out with them mountains and dry air filtering into the system. Same reson why Earl died out.
Earl's speed killed him :wink:
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rbaker

#6 Postby rbaker » Fri Aug 20, 2004 6:31 pm

uh, but speed did not kill Charley. Plus last several systems have been in this area including Charley, with some affect on them, or none like Charley, or Bonnie who were in this same area when they were td's. Also, I believe this one is on a more wnw course, unlike earl who never deviated from that westerly course.
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Rainband

#7 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 20, 2004 6:37 pm

rbaker wrote:uh, but speed did not kill Charley. Plus last several systems have been in this area including Charley, with some affect on them, or none like Charley, or Bonnie who were in this same area when they were td's. Also, I believe this one is on a more wnw course, unlike earl who never deviated from that westerly course.
Charley was better organized than earl was and I believe he slowed down. I do agree all systems are unique :wink:
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