wave entering windwards

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
rbaker

wave entering windwards

#1 Postby rbaker » Fri Aug 20, 2004 3:43 pm

The wave around the Grenada are at about 12.0n lat seems to flaring up a bit. Was looking at 1900z reports from down there and St. Lucia had a 22 mph sustained wind with a 52 mph gust, some of the other Barbados, St. Vincent had same kind of sustained winds, with some rain showers, pressures around 1013, 1014 mb, but that may be due to typical afternoon falls.
Sat pictures looks to moving it wnw maybe 20 mph. Just something for potential, besides the ones out there off of Africa :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2779
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

#2 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 20, 2004 4:06 pm

Yeah, convection looks on the rise slightly but the system is pretty close to the SA coast... I can't find any hint of rotation and it looks to be fighting some shear... but its the closest thing around at the moment.. also a real nice flare up of convection NW of Panama, probably go over to the EPAC ... its just a waiting game now
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5444
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#3 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 20, 2004 4:50 pm

Some of the long range models had this near 63 W a week ago, but a little further north and better developed. Can't see the NHC issuing a 5 day forecast track until it becomes a little better organized though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

#4 Postby TS Zack » Fri Aug 20, 2004 5:21 pm

No circulation at this time. Plus the system is very close to land and Venezuela will not help it out with them mountains and dry air filtering into the system. Same reson why Earl died out.
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 20, 2004 5:51 pm

TS Zack wrote:No circulation at this time. Plus the system is very close to land and Venezuela will not help it out with them mountains and dry air filtering into the system. Same reson why Earl died out.
Earl's speed killed him :wink:
0 likes   
Top
rbaker

#6 Postby rbaker » Fri Aug 20, 2004 6:31 pm

uh, but speed did not kill Charley. Plus last several systems have been in this area including Charley, with some affect on them, or none like Charley, or Bonnie who were in this same area when they were td's. Also, I believe this one is on a more wnw course, unlike earl who never deviated from that westerly course.
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#7 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 20, 2004 6:37 pm

rbaker wrote:uh, but speed did not kill Charley. Plus last several systems have been in this area including Charley, with some affect on them, or none like Charley, or Bonnie who were in this same area when they were td's. Also, I believe this one is on a more wnw course, unlike earl who never deviated from that westerly course.
Charley was better organized than earl was and I believe he slowed down. I do agree all systems are unique :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 339 guests