Ivan's track not towards florida.

[Windfall]

From what i am hearing lately, Ivan will go into the GOM and not threaten miami. As a result, I am thinking to take my shutters down. Even Derek Ortt said Miami is out of the cone.

[btsgmdad]

As much as I love Derek's forecast, the NHC still has all of South Florida in the cone. Plus this storm is moving fast. Hope you don't have to put them back up.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I would suggest leaving them up until it is certain that S FL won't be hit. Won't hurt anything if it doesn't come.

[Cape Verde]

If you take your shutters down, Ivan will make a beeline for your home.<P>If you leave them up, Ivan will head for the Yucatan.<P>That's just one of the laws of nature.

[lilbump3000]

Well of course the NHC cone still has it in it. There cone always bigger than what it should be. When frances was about to cross over flordia they had western louisiana in the cone. But still were its going to hit is up in the air, but i feel confident that this will pass south of florida. If it does hit florida, i dont know what yall state has done, but it has done something.

[ericinmia]

From what i am hearing lately, Ivan will go into the GOM and not threaten miami. As a result, I am thinking to take my shutters down. Even Derek Ortt said Miami is out of the cone.

Mabye that is how it was last night.... Now almost ALL the models are pointing at south fla. and the amazing Euro model which had pegged Francis hitting south-central fla for days and days and over 15 runs... it has had Ivan going through the keys and south dade for the past 4+ runs.

I see no reason to take them all down, even ermergency management in dade, broward, and monroe all asked people to generally leave most of them up.

take a look at this post last night i made, this was while the NHC was still predicting a curveture to the north-east... this storm is NOT going to going to continue westard/wnw and into the GOM... the remnants of Francis are creating a weakness in the ridge to allow Ivan to come northward a little. How far is unkonwn...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=42187
Stay safe
-Eric

[Sean in New Orleans]

Maybe Ivan will be a Texas storm---it's Texas' turn for a hurricane.

[ColinD]

Well of course the NHC cone still has it in it. There cone always bigger than what it should be.

Isn't the cone of error just the average error in track prediction? If so, then the cone is as it should be.

[Guest]

From what i am hearing lately, Ivan will go into the GOM and not threaten miami. As a result, I am thinking to take my shutters down. Even Derek Ortt said Miami is out of the cone.

Out of who's cone?

Wait till NHC's cone shifts & then youre out of the cone

[golter]

I think the cold fronts are coming in too often for a storm to make it to the texas coast, if they make it to the gom they are generally turned to LA, or panhandle. Ivan appears to be another florida storm.

Anyway, I agree with golter. Surely a front will come down and protect the western GOM.

[southerngale]

Maybe Ivan will be a Texas storm---it's Texas' turn for a hurricane.

Hey! That's a bannable comment!

















j/k
...but please don't say that again.lol The hurricanes this year are too strong and I've become accustomed to air conditioning, fresh food in my refrigerator and freezer, gas in my car, internet, television, warm baths and showers and the comfort of my own bed. Stay away Ivan!!

[jlauderdal]

From what i am hearing lately, Ivan will go into the GOM and not threaten miami. As a result, I am thinking to take my shutters down. Even Derek Ortt said Miami is out of the cone.

derek will be the first to tell you go with nhc tracks first. but hey if you have nothing better to do than take them down. mine will be staying up until oct 31.

[CourierPR]

Beldar, are we still the coneheads?

[Derek Ortt]

best to actually take a consensus of the two forecasts. 2 forecasts averaged are much better than one.

For this one, this appears to be an obvious trip south of Florida, though I am not as confident that this will clear the Florida Keys, at least the fringes of Ivan may clip the lower keys, maybe even the core

[ColinD]

I'm leaving mine up for now. Just going to wait a few days and then I can make a better decision on them.

[Guest]

best to actually take a consensus of the two forecasts. 2 forecasts averaged are much better than one.

For this one, this appears to be an obvious trip south of Florida, though I am not as confident that this will clear the Florida Keys, at least the fringes of Ivan may clip the lower keys, maybe even the core

If at this stage in the game you feel concern that maybe even the core will hit the lower Keys we are talking 5-6 days days out the margin for error is huge.It could hit the lower Keys like you said but even an error of 150 miles north we are talking Miami or 150 miles south we are talking south of Havana..