evacuating from the rickenbacker

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Derek Ortt

evacuating from the rickenbacker

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:47 am

the trends this morning have convinced me that I do need to leave.

I hope to have power througouut so I can keep issuing storm updates. If not, exp[ect updates every 4-6 hours with no forecasts
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2128
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#2 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:53 am

What are you expecting at the Rickenbacker area??
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Windsong
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 438
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:26 pm
Location: East Coast Central FL

#3 Postby Windsong » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:55 am

Stay safe Derek. Thanks again for all your guidence during these storms.
0 likes   
Top
Doc Seminole

#4 Postby Doc Seminole » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:58 am

With your forecasts..... I kinda thought you might change your mind... take care and stay safe, Storm2K Forecasting friend....



8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurryKane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1941
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: Diamondhead, Mississippi

#5 Postby HurryKane » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:07 am

Take care, Derek! Your forecasts are always appreciated. Good luck.
0 likes   
Top
NFLnut
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:37 pm

#6 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:10 am

Derek:

I am amazed at your skill, with your successful forecasts of the three previous storms. The NHC was making me doubt you a little last night/this morning because of their insistence on the GFS model, but I have confessed of my sin. I no longer doubt. It appears that with each NHC update, they are coming closer to consensus with your all-along forecast. Being in Seminole county and having major damage from Charley and Frances, and roofers not getting to me for another 5-6 weeks, a more south-westerly course towards the Tampa area is welcome (sorry Tampa people!).

Stay safe Derek, and I hope that everything there at home will be spared.

Don't take this the wrong way, but I hope I don't have to stay glued to your website any more THIS season! Life MUST return to normal at some point. :roll:
0 likes   
Top
Derecho
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2003 3:15 pm

#7 Postby Derecho » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:37 am

NFLnut wrote:Derek:

I am amazed at your skill, with your successful forecasts of the three previous storms. The NHC was making me doubt you a little last night/this morning because of their insistence on the GFS model, but I have confessed of my sin. I no longer doubt. It appears that with each NHC update, they are coming closer to consensus with your all-along forecast.



Huh? Jeannes' a heck of a lot closer to the NHC track than Derek's track.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#8 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:44 am

Stay safe Derek!
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
NFLnut
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:37 pm

#9 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:45 am

Derecho wrote:
NFLnut wrote:Derek:

I am amazed at your skill, with your successful forecasts of the three previous storms. The NHC was making me doubt you a little last night/this morning because of their insistence on the GFS model, but I have confessed of my sin. I no longer doubt. It appears that with each NHC update, they are coming closer to consensus with your all-along forecast.



Huh? Jeannes' a heck of a lot closer to the NHC track than Derek's track.



The NHC track has moved about 80-100 miles west (at least in the central Florida track) since 1100pm last night. They have moved closer to Derek's forecast with every update. Whether it will continue to go due west as long as Derek forecasts is the $1 question.

What I don't understand is that Steve Lyons still has Jeanne riding up the east coast (as did NHC until 1100 pm last night).
0 likes   
Top
rainstorm

#10 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:47 am

good luck derek
0 likes   
Top
FooBob
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:39 pm

#11 Postby FooBob » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:52 am

Good luck derek.

With a projected Fort Pierce landfall, what kind of winds will get at rickenbacker? Seems like a long way between the two.
0 likes   
Top
gulfcoaster53
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 71
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:32 am
Location: Sarasota, FL

#12 Postby gulfcoaster53 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:54 am

Good luck Derek. Battening down here in Sarasota...your 24 hr forecast puts center about 20 mi N of my location. Charging batteries and preparing for the 4th time in the last 6 weeks. Aloha!
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:30 am

we'll likely see gusts over 80 m.p.h. at rsmas
0 likes   
Top
FooBob
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:39 pm

#14 Postby FooBob » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:34 am

Derek Ortt wrote:we'll likely see gusts over 80 m.p.h. at rsmas


WOW! I didn't realize the storm is so large. I see the Fort Lauderdale forecast (to your north) is calling for less than that. Interesting. Do you think they are wrong?

Code: Select all

Tonight. Hurricane forecast winds possible in gusts. Widespread rain. Lows in the 70s. Winds west 40 to 50 mph with frequent gusts to 65 mph
0 likes   
Top
schmita
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 205
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 4:35 pm
Location: Sint Maarten/ 18.05 N 63.12 W

#15 Postby schmita » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:53 am

The Rickenbacker is a causeway that links the mainland, over Biscayne Bay to ultimately Key Biscayne. NOAA is on a small, barely sea level island between the two. The Rickenbacker Causeway is also very old and not very high.

That is why I believe he is evacuating. It will be closed any minute now if not already.
0 likes   
Top
GNWeather
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 2:29 pm
Location: Great Neck, NY

#16 Postby GNWeather » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:58 am

Derek Ortt wrote:we'll likely see gusts over 80 m.p.h. at rsmas


I don't see gusts over 80 happening there. Highest gusts will be around 60MPH. Hey Derek, tell Prof Albrecht that his former student, Canaan, says hi when you see him. Thanks
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 188 guests