evacuating from the rickenbacker

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Derek Ortt

evacuating from the rickenbacker

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:47 am

the trends this morning have convinced me that I do need to leave.

I hope to have power througouut so I can keep issuing storm updates. If not, exp[ect updates every 4-6 hours with no forecasts
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Canelaw99
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#2 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:53 am

What are you expecting at the Rickenbacker area??
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Windsong
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#3 Postby Windsong » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:55 am

Stay safe Derek. Thanks again for all your guidence during these storms.
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Doc Seminole

#4 Postby Doc Seminole » Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:58 am

With your forecasts..... I kinda thought you might change your mind... take care and stay safe, Storm2K Forecasting friend....



8-)
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#5 Postby HurryKane » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:07 am

Take care, Derek! Your forecasts are always appreciated. Good luck.
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#6 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:10 am

Derek:

I am amazed at your skill, with your successful forecasts of the three previous storms. The NHC was making me doubt you a little last night/this morning because of their insistence on the GFS model, but I have confessed of my sin. I no longer doubt. It appears that with each NHC update, they are coming closer to consensus with your all-along forecast. Being in Seminole county and having major damage from Charley and Frances, and roofers not getting to me for another 5-6 weeks, a more south-westerly course towards the Tampa area is welcome (sorry Tampa people!).

Stay safe Derek, and I hope that everything there at home will be spared.

Don't take this the wrong way, but I hope I don't have to stay glued to your website any more THIS season! Life MUST return to normal at some point. :roll:
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#7 Postby Derecho » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:37 am

NFLnut wrote:Derek:

I am amazed at your skill, with your successful forecasts of the three previous storms. The NHC was making me doubt you a little last night/this morning because of their insistence on the GFS model, but I have confessed of my sin. I no longer doubt. It appears that with each NHC update, they are coming closer to consensus with your all-along forecast.



Huh? Jeannes' a heck of a lot closer to the NHC track than Derek's track.
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#8 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:44 am

Stay safe Derek!
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#9 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:45 am

Derecho wrote:
NFLnut wrote:Derek:

I am amazed at your skill, with your successful forecasts of the three previous storms. The NHC was making me doubt you a little last night/this morning because of their insistence on the GFS model, but I have confessed of my sin. I no longer doubt. It appears that with each NHC update, they are coming closer to consensus with your all-along forecast.



Huh? Jeannes' a heck of a lot closer to the NHC track than Derek's track.



The NHC track has moved about 80-100 miles west (at least in the central Florida track) since 1100pm last night. They have moved closer to Derek's forecast with every update. Whether it will continue to go due west as long as Derek forecasts is the $1 question.

What I don't understand is that Steve Lyons still has Jeanne riding up the east coast (as did NHC until 1100 pm last night).
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rainstorm

#10 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:47 am

good luck derek
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#11 Postby FooBob » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:52 am

Good luck derek.

With a projected Fort Pierce landfall, what kind of winds will get at rickenbacker? Seems like a long way between the two.
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#12 Postby gulfcoaster53 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:54 am

Good luck Derek. Battening down here in Sarasota...your 24 hr forecast puts center about 20 mi N of my location. Charging batteries and preparing for the 4th time in the last 6 weeks. Aloha!
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Derek Ortt

#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:30 am

we'll likely see gusts over 80 m.p.h. at rsmas
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#14 Postby FooBob » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:34 am

Derek Ortt wrote:we'll likely see gusts over 80 m.p.h. at rsmas


WOW! I didn't realize the storm is so large. I see the Fort Lauderdale forecast (to your north) is calling for less than that. Interesting. Do you think they are wrong?

Code: Select all

Tonight. Hurricane forecast winds possible in gusts. Widespread rain. Lows in the 70s. Winds west 40 to 50 mph with frequent gusts to 65 mph
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#15 Postby schmita » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:53 am

The Rickenbacker is a causeway that links the mainland, over Biscayne Bay to ultimately Key Biscayne. NOAA is on a small, barely sea level island between the two. The Rickenbacker Causeway is also very old and not very high.

That is why I believe he is evacuating. It will be closed any minute now if not already.
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#16 Postby GNWeather » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:58 am

Derek Ortt wrote:we'll likely see gusts over 80 m.p.h. at rsmas


I don't see gusts over 80 happening there. Highest gusts will be around 60MPH. Hey Derek, tell Prof Albrecht that his former student, Canaan, says hi when you see him. Thanks
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