TB Hurricane's 8/9 Irene Forecast/Path

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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TB Hurricane's 8/9 Irene Forecast/Path

#1 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:08 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am very new to forecasting, so this is a very non-expert forecast.
So go easy on me :D
It is based on a strengthening Bermuda high along with other factors
explained below.
Dark red = cat 3
light red = cat 2
orange = cat 1
yellow = tropical storm
green = tropical depression


Given improving conditions and a strengthening B-High, Irene
will likely intensify as it moves into less shear and higher SSTs
Also, with the B-High in place, this storm will likely take a
westerly path. The hot sea surface temps of the gulf stream will aid in
Strengthening

Image
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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DESTRUCTION5
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#2 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:09 pm

how Convienient..RIght thru tampa!...LOL
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#3 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:10 pm

Actually a little north of Tampa :wink: Just because I think with weakening it will be subjected to the lower level SE flow.
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#4 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:11 pm

interesting...like the map..
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jrod
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#5 Postby jrod » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:12 pm

Nice forecast! I like how the NE quadrant goes right over my house.
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#6 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:15 pm

I would hate to see this come true, esp. since the florida
east coast had two in a row last year, but the B-high
is what's making me think of this scenario :eek:


Thank you all for compliments :)
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cinlfla
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#7 Postby cinlfla » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:16 pm

I love your graphics, but imo I think your to far south I think it will be further north. I really don't see Irene coming in that far south, but hey what do I know, I can't even find the center of the storm. :wink:
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jax

#8 Postby jax » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:18 pm

looks kinda like a wishcast...
sorta..
but you never know what these things are gonna do!
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#9 Postby BamaMan » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:18 pm

Nice graphics, and doesn't look a bit out of the question as time goes by
Excellent Job !!
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WXBUFFJIM
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#10 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:18 pm

It's something to watch even along the eastern seaboard. If there will be any effects at all, at least there will be swells and dangerous rip current issues that maybe factored in should this thing get close to the eastern seaboard this weekend and into early next week. Irene is definitely one to keep an eye on.

As for Florida, the only way I see this system moving into florida is if the bermud high ridges further westward ultimately blocking the storm from moving north up the east coast. Right now I'm thinking this system will attempt a track further north maybe up the eastern seaboard. But with tropical cyclone forecasting beyond 5 days it can be real complicating and it could go either way.

Jim
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#11 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:43 pm

your map didn't open for me??
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feederband
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#12 Postby feederband » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:52 pm

No map for me either... :cry:
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#13 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:52 pm

My hoster cut off access to it...:x ! Says it should be back in 1 hour.
Sorry about that.... :(
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#14 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:41 pm

It's back up! :D
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