TB Hurricane's 8/9 Irene Forecast/Path

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

TB Hurricane's 8/9 Irene Forecast/Path

#1 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:08 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am very new to forecasting, so this is a very non-expert forecast.
So go easy on me :D
It is based on a strengthening Bermuda high along with other factors
explained below.
Dark red = cat 3
light red = cat 2
orange = cat 1
yellow = tropical storm
green = tropical depression


Given improving conditions and a strengthening B-High, Irene
will likely intensify as it moves into less shear and higher SSTs
Also, with the B-High in place, this storm will likely take a
westerly path. The hot sea surface temps of the gulf stream will aid in
Strengthening

Image
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4430
Age: 44
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#2 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:09 pm

how Convienient..RIght thru tampa!...LOL
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#3 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:10 pm

Actually a little north of Tampa :wink: Just because I think with weakening it will be subjected to the lower level SE flow.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#4 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:11 pm

interesting...like the map..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jrod
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 1:22 pm
Location: jacksonville, fl

#5 Postby jrod » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:12 pm

Nice forecast! I like how the NE quadrant goes right over my house.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#6 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:15 pm

I would hate to see this come true, esp. since the florida
east coast had two in a row last year, but the B-high
is what's making me think of this scenario :eek:


Thank you all for compliments :)
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cinlfla
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 687
Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:16 pm
Location: Titusville, Florida on the Spacecoast

#7 Postby cinlfla » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:16 pm

I love your graphics, but imo I think your to far south I think it will be further north. I really don't see Irene coming in that far south, but hey what do I know, I can't even find the center of the storm. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
jax

#8 Postby jax » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:18 pm

looks kinda like a wishcast...
sorta..
but you never know what these things are gonna do!
0 likes   
Top
BamaMan
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 187
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:23 pm
Location: Mobile,AL

#9 Postby BamaMan » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:18 pm

Nice graphics, and doesn't look a bit out of the question as time goes by
Excellent Job !!
0 likes   
Top
WXBUFFJIM
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1971
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Baltimore

#10 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:18 pm

It's something to watch even along the eastern seaboard. If there will be any effects at all, at least there will be swells and dangerous rip current issues that maybe factored in should this thing get close to the eastern seaboard this weekend and into early next week. Irene is definitely one to keep an eye on.

As for Florida, the only way I see this system moving into florida is if the bermud high ridges further westward ultimately blocking the storm from moving north up the east coast. Right now I'm thinking this system will attempt a track further north maybe up the eastern seaboard. But with tropical cyclone forecasting beyond 5 days it can be real complicating and it could go either way.

Jim
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10252
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

#11 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:43 pm

your map didn't open for me??
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#12 Postby feederband » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:52 pm

No map for me either... :cry:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#13 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:52 pm

My hoster cut off access to it...:x ! Says it should be back in 1 hour.
Sorry about that.... :(
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#14 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:41 pm

It's back up! :D
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wwizard and 110 guests