Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[Derek Ortt]

at least the models are developing the same system

[Bailey1777]

Are we still talking about the same possible system as we were when this thread began?

[gatorcane]

Are we still talking about the same possible system as we were when this thread began?

Yes the same system. But while models are coming into better agreement, it looks like we are going to need to wait until later on next week before anything gets going. Previously some models were jumping on this low to develop earlier in the week.

[Bailey1777]

Question while looking at the long range loop of the GFS is that another possible system following right behind this one?

[Stormcenter]

All I have to is G F S......enough said.
I'll believe it when I see it. All of you will
more then likely enjoy a nice Memorial Day weekend.

[Bailey1777]

Well when all you have to talk about is ghost you talk about ghost.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS show weak disturbance in Yucatan Channel.

[gatorcane]

All I have to is G F S......enough said.
I'll believe it when I see it. All of you will
more then likely enjoy a nice Memorial Day weekend.

If you are talking about the first system, GFS has model support from several other models so it may be right. If you are talking about the "one behind it" then yeah -- GFS is probably going to be wrong on that one.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps

[gatorcane]

and 12Z ECMWF with landfall just west of NOLA in 240 hours....but fortunately keeps the system below hurricane status:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9051512!!/

With so many models on board, its looking like we will have something developing towards the end of next week...in the GOM.

All hands on deck folks -- will this season start with a bang?

[RL3AO]

If I remember correctly, in the past two years, the models have nailed the first system of the year a week+ out. Lets see if it can happen again.

[gatorcane]

OK changed title to reflect all models developing something in the GOM for late next week as all are showing something...

I hate to use the word "GOM" but that is where models are zeroing in on now.

Since we are only in May, we should hopefully expect just a weak, sheared system if anything...

I think Jeff Masters is going to reverse his forecast from earlier today when he was basically writing this thing off....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Landfall 10 days form now as weak system, maybe Sub Tropical Depression near NOLA

[Ed Mahmoud]

Landfall 10 days form now as weak system, maybe Sub Tropical Depression near NOLA

Edit to add: reduntant post, I didn't see link, but a picture is worth a dozen clicks...

[gatorcane]

Ed, what makes you think that is subtropical? Looks very tropical to me.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is getting very interesting with so many models on board...
Tampa Bay NWS mentioned something posted a few
pages back about a low over Cuba; Shear is still
very strong, so I think we may get a short lived
subtropical storm that goes extratropical quickly due
to shear.

-----Slight Off Topic but still Tropical Wind in my neighborhood Alert:
Speaking of tropical system...a really strong outflow boundary
(yes I know this was only a thunderstorm but I wish to "brag" about
my storm chasing "catch") brought me TS force winds yesterday (SE 44 G 53 mph downtown Saint Pete Officially); only light rain, but high wind. Lot's of small branches scattered about the yard.

[Bailey1777]

Which model is more trustworthy? GFS shows mid-tx/ ECMWF shows close to NOLA.

Better track record I should say.

[Stormcenter]

I hate to burst bubbles but we've seen all of models predict something that never panned this far out on many occasions in the past and that was during the peak months of the season. We are not even in the "official" part of the season. Yeah I know anything is possible (like me winning the Texas lotto) but we know the odds are slim so lets put things into perspective here. We are talking about a phantom system 7-10 days out.

[HURAKAN]

A ridge of high pressure will continue north of the area, maintaining a breezy easterly wind flow through the weekend along with a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Beaches. A trough is forecast to slowly develop into the early part of next week and beyond, with even the possibility of a surface low forming. Although there is uncertainty in the forecast next week, the overall pattern is suggesting the possibility of a widespread, beneficial rainfall across South Florida.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/gcast/#

[Stormcenter]

This far out.....none of them.

Which model is more trustworthy? GFS shows mid-tx/ ECMWF shows close to NOLA.

Better track record I should say.