Low pressure to organize over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Is INVEST 91L)

[sphelps8681]

I live in Lumberton Tx 20 mins from Beaumont. We have been getting some bad weather lately here in the area. So great more rain if this storm becomes a TD or TS. Thanks for the updates.

Lumberton almost always gets plenty of rain. Very rarely is lack of rain an issue there.

I live down the street on my road from the Neches river. We have to go down and check levels. The last storms we got had people evacuating down there.

[South Texas Storms]

Areas of southeast Texas are still flooded by earlier spring rains and haven't recovered from those events. I'm very concerned about copious amounts of tropical moisture falling on those same areas and making a bad situation even worse.

If anyone is asking, I'd gladly take some of that tropical moisture along the I-35 corridor for Austin and San Antonio.

Yeah Porta, SA, Austin and the Hill Country still really need the rain. Lake levels are so low across the region. A good soaking from a tropical system like this would be so beneficial for us.

[utweather]

Areas of southeast Texas are still flooded by earlier spring rains and haven't recovered from those events. I'm very concerned about copious amounts of tropical moisture falling on those same areas and making a bad situation even worse.

If anyone is asking, I'd gladly take some of that tropical moisture along the I-35 corridor for Austin and San Antonio.

Tropical clouds are cool to look at and rains without wind and hail are a win.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. A broad
area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on
those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[mpic]

Has there ever been many times when a storm that originated down there didn't end up going northeast or at least affecting southeast Texas/Louisiana? I started getting ready the minute it showed up. In my mind, there's a reason June 1st starts hurricane season and there have been plenty of tropical events that may as well have been hurricanes with the amount of rain that fell. My ground is still saturated after the last 2.5 months of rain so that I am barely able to mow and ditches still have water.

[Cpv17]

Has there ever been many times when a storm that originated down there didn't end up going northeast or at least affecting southeast Texas/Louisiana? I started getting ready the minute it showed up. In my mind, there's a reason June 1st starts hurricane season and there have been plenty of tropical events that may as well have been hurricanes with the amount of rain that fell. My ground is still saturated after the last 2.5 months of rain so that I am barely able to mow and ditches still have water.

Most systems that form in the Gulf during June are sheared systems. So the rain is mostly displaced well away from the center.

[skyline385]

The size of the CAG is pretty incredible

[Wampadawg]

The size of the CAG is pretty incredible

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Qtk9YwKw/G16-ABI-FD-BAND13-GRAD-20240616-224021-1.gif [/url]

You can say that again

[Category5Kaiju]

The size of the CAG is pretty incredible

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Qtk9YwKw/G16-ABI-FD-BAND13-GRAD-20240616-224021-1.gif [/url]

It definitely has that "look." That "look" that it's about to generate a TC soon.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: a little further north than the 12Z run; still has a TS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 23.6N 94.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2024 60 23.5N 94.7W 998 35
0000UTC 20.06.2024 72 23.4N 95.6W 997 39
1200UTC 20.06.2024 84 24.9N 97.9W 999 38
0000UTC 21.06.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING

[REDHurricane]

Woof

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for
portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those
warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf
coasts should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[wxman57]

NHC should be starting PTC advisories today, as TS watches will be needed since TS coastal winds are within 48 hrs

[NDG]

COC appears to be barely offshore, appears to be broad at this time but pressures in the area continue to drop.
Ciudad del Carmen reports a pressure of 1001mb, a 6 mb drop from 24 hrs ago.

[cycloneye]

Is INVEST 91L.