Signs of change from global models

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cycloneye
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#101 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:01 pm

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18z GFS at 72 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#102 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:11 pm

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18z GFS at 96 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#103 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:18 pm

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18z GFS at 120 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#104 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:28 pm

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18z GFS at 150 hours.
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#105 Postby hurricanetrack » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:29 pm

Look at the Canadian! It develops this wave and then moves it BACK TOWARDS AFRICA before sending it west. What the heck is going on?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re:

#106 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:33 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Look at the Canadian! It develops this wave and then moves it BACK TOWARDS AFRICA before sending it west. What the heck is going on?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



A malfunction of the animation?
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#107 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:41 pm

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18z GFS at 192 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#108 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image

18z GFS at 150 hours.



Is that a TS west of Tampa?
Last edited by DESTRUCTION5 on Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#109 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:48 pm

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18z GFS at 288 hours.

It loses the low pressure.But a new one forms south of Cape Verde islands.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#110 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:58 pm

18z GFS Loop

:uarrow:

Here is the complete 18z run of GFs.In summary,it has a low moving WNW towards the islands but it weakens it.Later is has a new low near the Cape Verde islands.Also a couple of lows,one in the EGOM and two off the Carolinas.
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Re:

#111 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:04 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Look at the Canadian! It develops this wave and then moves it BACK TOWARDS AFRICA before sending it west. What the heck is going on?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



I've never seen a dyslexic tropical system :lol: I know we've had some weird seasons like 2005,but this would signal the whole world is bonkers
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS rolling in

#112 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:20 pm

Actually it looks like it gets scooped up by a shortwave before hitting the US.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Image

18z GFS at 150 hours.



Is that a TS east of Tampa?
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=18z GFS Posted

#113 Postby jimvb » Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:25 pm

I just took a look at the 18Z GFS. What seems to be happening is a front going too far south for this time of the year. When it departs, it leaves an area of storminess of the GA coast which seems to develop into a hurricane similar to Diana 1984 or Ophelia 2005. The Cape Verde storm that we have been tracking all along develops, then fizzles out and gets absorbed in this front. I saw the UKMET run. It seems to do a back twirl before dancing on to the west. Not that unusual, to me, but I suppose weirder things can happen. The question is whether the Bermuda high will spread west and bop a storm to the GOM, as in one run, or back off and allow it to strike the Carolinas, like it does in other runs. We will have to wait and see what happens.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models

#114 Postby flwxwatcher » Thu Jul 26, 2007 7:00 pm

12 Z Euro is developing a system now.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7072612!!/
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models

#115 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:28 pm

Game on??? What is that west of tampa.???
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models

#116 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:12 pm

Rainband wrote:Game on??? What is that west of tampa.???



What GFS shows there is a front dropping down to Florida/GOM and forming a weak low but nothing strong reaching Tropical Storm.
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#117 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:29 pm

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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run shortly

#118 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:31 pm

00z GFS initialized both LOWs

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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#119 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:34 pm

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00z GFS at 6 hours.
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Re: Re:

#120 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:Look at the Canadian! It develops this wave and then moves it BACK TOWARDS AFRICA before sending it west. What the heck is going on?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



A malfunction of the animation?

It isn't a malfunction. The CMC is on crack as usual. It may though be seeing some type of center reformation to the north.
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