Signs of change from global models

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 96 hours.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 150 hours.

[hurricanetrack]

Look at the Canadian! It develops this wave and then moves it BACK TOWARDS AFRICA before sending it west. What the heck is going on?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Look at the Canadian! It develops this wave and then moves it BACK TOWARDS AFRICA before sending it west. What the heck is going on?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

A malfunction of the animation?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 192 hours.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFS at 150 hours.

Is that a TS west of Tampa?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 288 hours.

It loses the low pressure.But a new one forms south of Cape Verde islands.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



Here is the complete 18z run of GFs.In summary,it has a low moving WNW towards the islands but it weakens it.Later is has a new low near the Cape Verde islands.Also a couple of lows,one in the EGOM and two off the Carolinas.

[canegrl04]

Look at the Canadian! It develops this wave and then moves it BACK TOWARDS AFRICA before sending it west. What the heck is going on?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

I've never seen a dyslexic tropical system I know we've had some weird seasons like 2005,but this would signal the whole world is bonkers

[SouthFloridawx]

Actually it looks like it gets scooped up by a shortwave before hitting the US.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml

18z GFS at 150 hours.

Is that a TS east of Tampa?

[jimvb]

I just took a look at the 18Z GFS. What seems to be happening is a front going too far south for this time of the year. When it departs, it leaves an area of storminess of the GA coast which seems to develop into a hurricane similar to Diana 1984 or Ophelia 2005. The Cape Verde storm that we have been tracking all along develops, then fizzles out and gets absorbed in this front. I saw the UKMET run. It seems to do a back twirl before dancing on to the west. Not that unusual, to me, but I suppose weirder things can happen. The question is whether the Bermuda high will spread west and bop a storm to the GOM, as in one run, or back off and allow it to strike the Carolinas, like it does in other runs. We will have to wait and see what happens.

[flwxwatcher]

12 Z Euro is developing a system now.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7072612!!/

[Rainband]

Game on??? What is that west of tampa.???

[cycloneye]

Game on??? What is that west of tampa.???

What GFS shows there is a front dropping down to Florida/GOM and forming a weak low but nothing strong reaching Tropical Storm.

[Aric Dunn]

12z EURO.. from the PSU site

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Aric Dunn]

00z GFS initialized both LOWs

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 6 hours.

[wxmann_91]

Look at the Canadian! It develops this wave and then moves it BACK TOWARDS AFRICA before sending it west. What the heck is going on?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

A malfunction of the animation?

It isn't a malfunction. The CMC is on crack as usual. It may though be seeing some type of center reformation to the north.