Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Ubuntwo]

GFS showing 40 knots or more shear across this in the NW Gulf, and dry air being pushed into the system by the shear. No matter how warm the Gulf is, it'll be facing hostile conditions and probably won't become a hurricane. Not sure it isn't subtropical. Decent shot as using the F storm name in a year where NS are tightly rationed.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdDVqODRqMm40cWQ0NWw3NWtneHptemV3cHRrYWd4MDNkMXQ1MHQ1ciZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/APyIldHhAEzla8rw3t/giphy.gif

The operational GFS (taken literally) does show a fully tropical system. It's a symmetric warm core and the pressure gradient is very tight. However, some of the systems on the ensembles look kind of subtropical with very broad gradients and loose RMWs - though they are still technically tropical storms.

[tropicwatch]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Guatemala, southeastern
Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The wave is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche later today,
and an area of low pressure is forecast to develop while interacting
with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Frank P]

Looks like the convection survived the night and soon we'll she can do during daylight. Probably needs to start some northly motion as well so it doesn't run into Mexico. Will be fun to see how all sthis cenario plays out today and first 60% AOI I've seen in a while... cheers

[tropicwatch]

Decent looking system but it sure looks like it is going to run into Mexico.

[Frank P]

06z GFS ensemble model run, looks like a tad shift east with some of the members from previous runs.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to
develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Frank P]

0z UKMET has what looks like a TS for SELA and MS coast, rainfall would be the main concern however.

[tropicwatch]

Should get an invest tag pretty soon I would think.

[gatorcane]

Agreed, looks like we will more than likely see a depression and quite possibly a tropical storm (Francine) from this. Latest 06Z GFS shows a strong tropical storm:

[Frank P]

Looking at a Mexican radar here is where the broad center IMO appears to be as it enters the BOC. I couldn't make a gif so if someone can, go for it. Vis sat images should be coming up soon.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This system's genesis (if it happens) would be a pretty big win for the EC-AIFS model (the AI-based Euro), which called for genesis as far back as Tuesday.

[wxman57]

Will have to wait for the NHC to designate this system an invest before we get any tropical models. My forecast has a 50kt TS moving inland near the TX/LA border on Wednesday.

[3090]

Will have to wait for the NHC to designate this system an invest before we get any tropical models. My forecast has a 50kt TS moving inland near the TX/LA border on Wednesday.

Before a LLC has even been remotely formed?

[Frank P]

First vis sat image indicates it continues to fire convection on its western flank..

[HurricaneBrain]

We have invest 91L.

AL, 91, 2024090612, , BEST, 0, 188N, 881W, 15, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 91, 2024090618, , BEST, 0, 190N, 890W, 15, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 91, 2024090700, , BEST, 0, 191N, 900W, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 91, 2024090706, , BEST, 0, 191N, 913W, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 91, 2024090712, , BEST, 0, 188N, 927W, 20, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 130, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al752024 to al912024,

[cycloneye]

This has been the most longest thread of a pre invest area in S2K but it ends now.

Go to the 91L discussion thread.