2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SouthFLTropics]

What model and run is that SFL?


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[SFLcane]

What model and run is that SFL?


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CFS, fyi did great picking up the current activity.

[boca]

What model and run is that SFL?


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CFS, fyi did great picking up the current activity.

Did that storm the model is showing form yet or still in Africa?

[Hurricaneman]

What model and run is that SFL?


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CFS, fyi did great picking up the current activity.

Did that storm the model is showing form yet or still in Africa?

That is I believe Franklin on the CFS just offshore

[SFLcane]

CFS, fyi did great picking up the current activity.

Did that storm the model is showing form yet or still in Africa?

That is I believe Franklin on the CFS just offshore

Na i think this is 92L.

[boca]

CFS, fyi did great picking up the current activity.

Did that storm the model is showing form yet or still in Africa?

That is I believe Franklin on the CFS just offshore

Franklin is supposed to head north once it crosses Hispaniola towards Bermuda not towards Florida.

[jfk08c]

Did that storm the model is showing form yet or still in Africa?

That is I believe Franklin on the CFS just offshore

Franklin is supposed to head north once it crosses Hispaniola towards Bermuda not towards Florida.

Tell that to the latest ICON run

[IcyTundra]

The next wave to watch is going to be coming off of Africa early next week. GFS, Euro, CMC, GEFS, and EPS show potential development with varying levels of support.

[wxman57]

Did that storm the model is showing form yet or still in Africa?

That is I believe Franklin on the CFS just offshore

Franklin is supposed to head north once it crosses Hispaniola towards Bermuda not towards Florida.

Definitely was 92L on the 12Z GFS. Into Pensacola in 384 hrs. Where have we seen such a forecast before?

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS really gets the wave train going starting next week. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a couple more named storms heading into September.

[Ivanhater]

00Z models are in excellent agreement on a storm moving towards the Northern Gulf next week. Euro, Icon, Cmc



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[REDHurricane]

00Z models are in excellent agreement on a storm moving towards the Northern Gulf next week. Euro, Icon, Cmc

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/a11889d685ac023e70eec334e2791f1c.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/d5853560a9ad9a826796dc20048bb08a.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/0de26b5bfe80f900d0dfbf05cedc1b29.jpg

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We're eventually just going to have to skip the letter "I" in the name list altogether, aren't we

[N2FSU]

0z Euro ensembles jumping on a storm moving into the northern Gulf next week as well:



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[jlauderdal]

0z Euro ensembles jumping on a storm moving into the northern Gulf next week as well: https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/31bad4422f4216156e726debe8294098.jpeg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/67cbc4f7cba081887342d13941b4872e.jpeg


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The euro had a very intense panhandle system a couple of days ago, then lost it, and now it's back with model support, it looks like we have our first big player of the season. Meanwhile, we continue to dodge systems in SE Florida...harry to the west, frank to the se and now this gulf system to the west.

[chris_fit]

Nadda on the 06 GFZ in regards to the possible new gulf system.

[SFLcane]

0z Euro ensembles jumping on a storm moving into the northern Gulf next week as well: https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/31bad4422f4216156e726debe8294098.jpeg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/67cbc4f7cba081887342d13941b4872e.jpeg


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The euro had a very intense panhandle system a couple of days ago, then lost it, and now it's back with model support, it looks like we have our first big player of the season. Meanwhile, we continue to dodge systems in SE Florida...harry to the west, frank to the se and now this gulf system to the west.

What are we dodging if nothing has formed yet?

[REDHurricane]

What are we dodging if nothing has formed yet?

I agree it's more likely than not that nothing significant will form from this -- all three models have the system in question originally coming from a piece of vorticity that breaks off from the EPac monsoon trough and survives crossing over a large chunk of Central America into the Gulf in about 5 days, which doesn't seem highly probable at this point. However, if I remember correctly some of the models last year were predicting the formation/approximate path of Ian about 7-8 days in advance, and the fact that 3/4 main models are showing the same general atmospheric pattern in place less than a week out isn't meaningless. The next day or two's model runs should give us a much better idea of what could happen, and it'll be interesting to see whether or not the GFS (which loves spinning up these CAG storms) jumps on board or if the other models end up trending toward the GFS solution

[SFLcane]

Should certainly keep an eye on this area.

[lsuhurricane]

We've been down this road before (just last week) on modeled CAG type development in the 5-7 day range. GEFS showing little to no support, but otherwise, looks like something to watch seeing that its only 100-120 hours out.

0z EPS was extremely robust with development.

[TomballEd]

HRD scientist Andy Hazelton says the Euro has too much of a bias toward maintaining strength of features crossing land. He leans GFS, it sees the same weak disturbance crossing from the Pacific, but weakens the low level vorticity as it crosses the mountains. There are some GFS ensembles that do cross from the Pacific, but not as many