Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[LarryWx]

Just like is the case for the 12Z ICON, the 12Z UKMET is the first run with a TC from this (may be due to it just coming in range since TCG isn’t til the end of the run). It is in the NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 25.0N 77.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 168 25.0N 77.6W 1012 29

[BobHarlem]

Still coming in but 12z gfs has it in the Gulf again after several runs with nothing.



And then slows down/nearly stalls offshore of Panama City Beach, FL and gets in on Early Tuesday morning.


12z CMC also goes into gulf much like the 0z run.

[LarryWx]

Still coming in but 12z gfs has it in the Gulf again.
https://i.imgur.com/ZH452BU.png
https://i.imgur.com/Hirvi9Z.png

And then slows down/stalls offshore of Panama City Beach, FL.
https://i.imgur.com/zoDJ3Kh.png

The 12Z GFS is the first GFS with a TC from this since yesterday’s 6Z (hits the FL panhandle).

[Michele B]

The 12Z ICON is its first run with a TC from this. At 180 it has a 1005 mb low moving NW in the direction of the central US GOM coast.

I like ICON. It seems to pick up on things some others don’t see.

Not crazy about this model run, tho!

[BobHarlem]

12z CMC


12z gfs also makes landfall near Panama City Beach, but it moves very very slowly before landfall, almost stalls out.

[Stratton23]

Things get interesting if this ends up in the gulf because as it approaches the NE gulf, the ridge may try to cut off its escape path north over land which could cause the system to temporarily stall out

[ThunderForce]

The Euro model and its ensembles appear to be the only ones consistently showcasing a more eastward/northeastward path.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF might be a bit overamped now gfs,cmc,icon all more on a southern track. We shall see once a more coherent system forms if it ever does.

[LarryWx]

ECMWF might be a bit overamped now gfs,cmc,icon all more on a southern track. We shall see once a more coherent system forms if it ever does.

Don’t forget the 12Z UKMET, which has it in the NW Bahamas recurving E of FL due to a 500 mb weakness (more like Euro). It is the only well followed 12Z with a TC not in the Gulf excluding the yet to be released Euro.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF might be a bit overamped now gfs,cmc,icon all more on a southern track. We shall see once a more coherent system forms if it ever does.

Don’t forget the 12Z UKMET, which has it in the NW Bahamas recurving E of FL due to a 500 mb weakness (more like Euro). It is the only well followed 12Z with a TC not in the Gulf.

Maybe.. lets wait till something forms first.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS is less active than the most active to date 6Z GEFS, which had 5 TCs (all of which hit the CONUS). This run has 3 TCs, all of which either hit the E coast of FL or stay offshore the E coast. So, no Gulf TCs on the 12Z GEFS. The 6Z had one.
It is less active than the 6Z, but it is at least as active as any of the other GEFS runs to date. So, not a trend.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form mid to late week while the system
is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[LarryWx]

How about this change on the 12Z Euro?! It is much weaker (maybe a TD at most/1008 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC.

[ThunderForce]

Why is the orange X way below the formation area on the NHC's chart?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

How about this change on the 12Z Euro?! It is much weaker (maybe a TD at most/1008 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC.

Where are you seeing the 12z Euro? Neither pivotalweather or tropicaltidbits have it out yet.

[LarryWx]

How about this change on the 12Z Euro?! It is much weaker (maybe a TD at most/1008 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC.

Where are you seeing the 12z Euro? Neither pivotalweather or tropicaltidbits have it out yet.

Paid site

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1817616815054594544

[SFLcane]

How about this change on the 12Z Euro?! It is much weaker (maybe a TD at most/1008 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC.

Where are you seeing the 12z Euro? Neither pivotalweather or tropicaltidbits have it out yet.

[toad strangler]

How about this change on the 12Z Euro?! It is much weaker (maybe a TD at most/1008 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC.

Where are you seeing the 12z Euro? Neither pivotalweather or tropicaltidbits have it out yet.

I'm assuming Storm Vista. It’s out on that service.

[WaveBreaking]

Why is the orange X way below the formation area on the NHC's chart?

The current area marked by the NHC is forecast to merge with a large tropical wave off to the E. The resulting Fujiwhara interaction will pull the AOI to the NW before merging and moving WNW.