2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TampaWxLurker]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

[Kazmit]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I believe that’s the new lowriding wave some models have been showing.

[Fancy1002]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I’m pretty sure Karen will be taken by the East Coast storm in a few days so that will likely be L

[LarryWx]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I’m pretty sure Karen will be taken by the East Coast storm in a few days so that will likely be L

1. But that’s only if the NHC were to classify it as a subtropical storm. They may, but so far there’s not even been a mention of it in the TWO.

2. OTOH, 96L has been mentioned in the TWOs as having a chance for subtropical or tropical development, either of which would earn it a name.

[AnnularCane]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

Almost does an Isidore there.

Runs over the mouth of the Mississippi and then the FL panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

Almost does an Isidore there.

Runs over the mouth of the Mississippi and then the FL panhandle.

Common track for October

[TheDreamTraveler]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I’m pretty sure Karen will be taken by the East Coast storm in a few days so that will likely be L

Funnily enough neither of those 2 storms took the Karen name and instead that one way north east in the Atlantic did

[AJC3]

Just giving peeps a quick heads-up that a thread has been started for the current trough along the SE U.S. Coast that should become a significant coastal gale/storm, with some potential for STC/TC development.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS on long range with East-Central Caribbean Sea area.

[cycloneye]

Whoa, AI Deepmind has also activity in Caribbean.

[Kazmit]

Whoa, AI Deepmind has also activity in Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/af3F4E3.png

The happy hour GFS does too…

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Looking past sloppy Jerry...18z GFS develops those two waves the EPS has been interested in the past few days.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ngl, with storm after storm this year turning out to sea, it does feel somewhat odd to see some of these long-range models, especially the deepmind AI ones, showing a possible signal in the ECAR later this month. The absolute hotspot for activity this year has been the Sargasso Sea....but will this season manage to produce something noteworthy in the Caribbean or Gulf before the end? We shall see.