2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TampaWxLurker]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

[Kazmit]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I believe that’s the new lowriding wave some models have been showing.

[Fancy1002]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I’m pretty sure Karen will be taken by the East Coast storm in a few days so that will likely be L

[LarryWx]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I’m pretty sure Karen will be taken by the East Coast storm in a few days so that will likely be L

1. But that’s only if the NHC were to classify it as a subtropical storm. They may, but so far there’s not even been a mention of it in the TWO.

2. OTOH, 96L has been mentioned in the TWOs as having a chance for subtropical or tropical development, either of which would earn it a name.

[AnnularCane]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

Almost does an Isidore there.

Runs over the mouth of the Mississippi and then the FL panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

Almost does an Isidore there.

Runs over the mouth of the Mississippi and then the FL panhandle.

Common track for October

[TheDreamTraveler]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I’m pretty sure Karen will be taken by the East Coast storm in a few days so that will likely be L

Funnily enough neither of those 2 storms took the Karen name and instead that one way north east in the Atlantic did

[cycloneye]

12z GFS on long range with East-Central Caribbean Sea area.

[cycloneye]

Whoa, AI Deepmind has also activity in Caribbean.

[Kazmit]

Whoa, AI Deepmind has also activity in Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/af3F4E3.png

The happy hour GFS does too…

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Looking past sloppy Jerry...18z GFS develops those two waves the EPS has been interested in the past few days.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ngl, with storm after storm this year turning out to sea, it does feel somewhat odd to see some of these long-range models, especially the deepmind AI ones, showing a possible signal in the ECAR later this month. The absolute hotspot for activity this year has been the Sargasso Sea....but will this season manage to produce something noteworthy in the Caribbean or Gulf before the end? We shall see.

[Fancy1002]

The end of the 00z gfs is looking scary for florida.

Looks to be taking the Ian/charley route, or maybe Miami

[zhukm29]

GFS 00z run decided to go absolutely nuts. Of course, this is fantasy land, so this is probably not going to happen (although that second low rider wave does seem concerning). Let's hope this doesn't happen since this is nightmare fuel, especially since that area of the basin hasn't been touched all year.

[Fancy1002]

GFS 00z run decided to go absolutely nuts. Of course, this is fantasy land, so this is probably not going to happen (although that second low rider wave does seem concerning). Let's hope this doesn't happen since this is nightmare fuel, especially since that area of the basin hasn't been touched all year.

https://i.postimg.cc/Fs0bVRgQ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384-2.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/KzsK57wJ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-61.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fTd3x9KB/image-1.webp

That’s such a cool looking boundary of storms to its north

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS 00z run decided to go absolutely nuts. Of course, this is fantasy land, so this is probably not going to happen (although that second low rider wave does seem concerning). Let's hope this doesn't happen since this is nightmare fuel, especially since that area of the basin hasn't been touched all year.

https://i.postimg.cc/Fs0bVRgQ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384-2.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/KzsK57wJ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-61.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fTd3x9KB/image-1.webp

GFS has been abysmal this year. It's honestly been so bad that I don't even pay attention to it anymore. It's had more happy hour catastrophic runs this year of storms that just popped out of nowhere than any other year I can remember. It's fun to get a chuckle out of though. I'm sure the other models get a laugh of it also. GFS reminds of the kid in school that loved to show off only to fall flat on his face later.

[SFLcane]

Fyi..

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1976745586326970626

[zhukm29]

GFS 00z run decided to go absolutely nuts. Of course, this is fantasy land, so this is probably not going to happen (although that second low rider wave does seem concerning). Let's hope this doesn't happen since this is nightmare fuel, especially since that area of the basin hasn't been touched all year.

https://i.postimg.cc/Fs0bVRgQ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384-2.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/KzsK57wJ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-61.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fTd3x9KB/image-1.webp

GFS has been abysmal this year. It's honestly been so bad that I don't even pay attention to it anymore. It's had more happy hour catastrophic runs this year of storms that just popped out of nowhere than any other year I can remember. It's fun to get a chuckle out of though. I'm sure the other models get a laugh of it also. GFS reminds of the kid in school that loved to show off only to fall flat on his face later.

Yeah it'll probably be gone the next run, but this at least seems to come from an actual wave that is expected to come off of Africa and not just some spurious vorticity that pops out of nowhere. AEWs that form in late October typically never reach the US though, so this specific path is probably unlikely and is just for entertainment purposes.

[zhukm29]

Sharing the simulated IR satellite for this insane run for posterity, in case someone from the future wanted to see how crazy the GFS was:

[ElectricStorm]

Obviously this 907mb GFS run is likely out to lunch, but it's worth noting this wave appears on the 12z Euro, as well as the 0z ICON and CMC to an extent, so this upcoming wave will definitely need to be watched. Especially it stays weaker initially and makes its way further west before developing (if at all)