Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[northjaxpro]

If there has been one constant mainstay so far this season, it has been the TUTT feature which has seemingly found a home so far this season in and around the Bahamas. We have seen TUTTs park itself over this vicinity, which greatly contributed to the demise of Chantal and Dorian. Now, we have another one currently just east of the Bahamas.

We won't get any formidable tropical cyclones developing past 60 degrees longitude anytime soon until the pattern changes and we see these TUTTs get displaced.

[Sanibel]

Perfect set up for the scenario changing just as the season peaks and the MJO shifts positive.

[tolakram]

I have a graphic here that probably doesn't apply to hurricane season at all, but I found it interesting since some have been comparing the start of this season to 2004 or 2009.



Yes, the number of 90+ days up here in Cincy, and the fact that we seem to be done with the 90's for the year, putting us in 2004 and 2009 territory. Both 2004 and 2009 experienced el nino's, and right now we are heading into what looks to be a week la nina.

El Nino seasons tend to end early, La Nina tend to end late.

What does it all mean?

[wxman57]

If there has been one constant mainstay so far this season, it has been the TUTT feature which has seemingly found a home so far this season in and around the Bahamas. We have seen TUTTs park itself over this vicinity, which greatly contributed to the demise of Chantal and Dorian. Now, we have another one currently just east of the Bahamas.

We won't get any formidable tropical cyclones developing past 60 degrees longitude anytime soon until the pattern changes and we see these TUTTs get displaced.

GFS ensembles are predicting a considerable change in the pattern next week:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[ninel conde]

If there has been one constant mainstay so far this season, it has been the TUTT feature which has seemingly found a home so far this season in and around the Bahamas. We have seen TUTTs park itself over this vicinity, which greatly contributed to the demise of Chantal and Dorian. Now, we have another one currently just east of the Bahamas.

We won't get any formidable tropical cyclones developing past 60 degrees longitude anytime soon until the pattern changes and we see these TUTTs get displaced.

GFS ensembles are predicting a considerable change in the pattern next week:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

if im reading that right its showing a rather large trof over the east?

[Hurricane Alexis]

If there has been one constant mainstay so far this season, it has been the TUTT feature which has seemingly found a home so far this season in and around the Bahamas. We have seen TUTTs park itself over this vicinity, which greatly contributed to the demise of Chantal and Dorian. Now, we have another one currently just east of the Bahamas.

We won't get any formidable tropical cyclones developing past 60 degrees longitude anytime soon until the pattern changes and we see these TUTTs get displaced.

GFS ensembles are predicting a considerable change in the pattern next week:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

if im reading that right its showing a rather large trof over the east?

Trough is expected to move west, at least through wednesday of next week.

A piece from Miami AFD:

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE A QUIET PATTERN.
THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DISAPPEAR AS IT FILLS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE TROUGH MOVES WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

[Bocadude85]

I am glad we are having a quiet August thus far as I will be in the Key's starting tomorrow and will hopefully be catching my limit of lobster everyday.

[TheStormExpert]

I have a graphic here that probably doesn't apply to hurricane season at all, but I found it interesting since some have been comparing the start of this season to 2004 or 2009.

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/5144/7u36.jpg

Yes, the number of 90+ days up here in Cincy, and the fact that we seem to be done with the 90's for the year, putting us in 2004 and 2009 territory. Both 2004 and 2009 experienced el nino's, and right now we are heading into what looks to be a week la nina.

El Nino seasons tend to end early, La Nina tend to end late.

What does it all mean?

2004: Modoki El Niño
2009: (Full-Blown) El Niño
2013: Nuetral to weak La Niña

Just summing up the facts.

[SFLcane]

If there has been one constant mainstay so far this season, it has been the TUTT feature which has seemingly found a home so far this season in and around the Bahamas. We have seen TUTTs park itself over this vicinity, which greatly contributed to the demise of Chantal and Dorian. Now, we have another one currently just east of the Bahamas.

We won't get any formidable tropical cyclones developing past 60 degrees longitude anytime soon until the pattern changes and we see these TUTTs get displaced.

GFS ensembles are predicting a considerable change in the pattern next week:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

57 Mind elaborating a bit what you think of that pattern change?

[ninel conde]

If there has been one constant mainstay so far this season, it has been the TUTT feature which has seemingly found a home so far this season in and around the Bahamas. We have seen TUTTs park itself over this vicinity, which greatly contributed to the demise of Chantal and Dorian. Now, we have another one currently just east of the Bahamas.

We won't get any formidable tropical cyclones developing past 60 degrees longitude anytime soon until the pattern changes and we see these TUTTs get displaced.

GFS ensembles are predicting a considerable change in the pattern next week:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

pattern change still on track?

[wxman57]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast just came in. For the past few months, the Euro has forecast increasingly high pressure across the Gulf & Caribbean for August-October. The August forecast is for normal to below normal pressure there. Big reversal.

[PTrackerLA]

That sounds pretty significant, do you have a graphic to share?

[Blown Away]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast just came in. For the past few months, the Euro has forecast increasingly high pressure across the Gulf & Caribbean for August-October. The August forecast is for normal to below normal pressure there. Big reversal.

Geez, it's about time, some of us have been patiently waiting for the destruction and chaos to begin...

[SoupBone]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast just came in. For the past few months, the Euro has forecast increasingly high pressure across the Gulf & Caribbean for August-October. The August forecast is for normal to below normal pressure there. Big reversal.

So with such a drastic reversal, what makes it trustworthy now that it's showing favorable conditions for development?

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

That sounds pretty significant, do you have a graphic to share?

Nope, you have to wait a few weeks for the graphic to be posted to their public website.

[wxman57]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast just came in. For the past few months, the Euro has forecast increasingly high pressure across the Gulf & Caribbean for August-October. The August forecast is for normal to below normal pressure there. Big reversal.

So with such a drastic reversal, what makes it trustworthy now that it's showing favorable conditions for development?

It now matches the majority of global models in their seasonal forecasts. This is a good site for comparing seasonal forecasts:

https://www.wmolc.org/

Have to register, but it's free.

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like all systems go for a big season. This should be interesting. Hope peeps are ready - especially in places like Florida where not a single hurricane has hit since 2005. That's almost 8 years for those of you in Rio Linda

[wxman57]

Looks like all systems go for a big season. This should be interesting. Hope peeps are ready - especially in places like Florida where not a single hurricane has hit since 2005. That's almost 8 years for those of you in Rio Linda

Meanwhile, I'm wondering when was the last storm-free August?

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like all systems go for a big season. This should be interesting. Hope peeps are ready - especially in places like Florida where not a single hurricane has hit since 2005. That's almost 8 years for those of you in Rio Linda

Meanwhile, I'm wondering when was the last storm-free August?

1914 AHS?

[Ptarmigan]

1914 AHS?

1914 had no satellites, so I would consider that dubious.