Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[LarryWx]

I think Future Model Runs will shift east, Partly due to The Blow up off Belize, and Partly due to Climatology. Then again, the Tropics can be unpredictable, so until we have some Area to track all bets are off.

The 12Z GFS is doing what other recent runs have been doing: they take this WC stuff and move a lot of the associated energy westward into the Bay of Campeche due to steering and prevent what's left behind in the WC from developing due to competition in the Bay of Campeche and the EPAC. There's too much competition for the WC to develop. The main question is whether or not this is what will happen or will most of the energy remain focused in the WC long enough to allow it to develop in the WC.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I think Future Model Runs will shift east, Partly due to The Blow up off Belize, and Partly due to Climatology. Then again, the Tropics can be unpredictable, so until we have some Area to track all bets are off.

The 12Z GFS is doing what other recent runs have been doing: they take this WC stuff and move a lot of the associated energy westward into the Bay of Campeche due to steering and prevent what's left behind in the WC from developing due to competition in the Bay of Campeche and the EPAC. There's too much competition for the WC to develop. The main question is whether or not this is what will happen or will most of the energy remain focused in the WC long enough to allow it to develop in the WC.

I guess I am finding it hard to go against Climatology, with the Area already Blowing up off Belize.

[HurrMark]

Looks like at least a broad low forming at 96 hrs in the BOC...

[Stormcenter]

Lilly type scenario. IMO

Looks like at least a broad low forming at 96 hrs in the BOC...

[PTrackerLA]

EPAC TC is much stronger and further West than any of the last several runs. I wonder if anything gets going in the GOM this time...

[Alyono]

the main low may not form until late next week. EC had a broad low forming on Monday. It dissipates then the main cyclone forms

of course, the new MU goes incredibly far westward, throwing a monkey wrench in things

[Nimbus]

A very weak broad wave axis near Belize right now IMO.

Right, how long till this migrates across the Yucatan into the BOC?

edit: After checking the high res vis the center looks pretty far south.
I'd say 48 hrs to the BOC with the right steering flow.

Any models take it into the Pacific?

[Alyono]

showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS

[LarryWx]

A very weak broad wave axis near Belize right now IMO.

Right, how long till this migrates across the Yucatan into the BOC?

edit: After checking the high res vis the center looks pretty far south.
I'd say 48 hrs to the BOC with the right steering flow.

Any models take it into the Pacific?

Best chance of this developing in WC imo is that it does it quickly before too much of its energy moves into B of C and it gets competition from B of C and EPAC. Only a low chance as I've been saying (maybe 10% to perhaps 15%) but imo not near 0%.

[PTrackerLA]

showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS

Looks like it forms over land. Yeah, BS flag raised high on this run...

[LarryWx]

showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS

Alyono,
MU looks bogus on this 12Z run as it strengthens into a TC over land lmao (E TX). You don't buy that, do you? Unless it isn't a TC??

PS edit: ninja'ed by Ptracker lmao

[Alyono]

showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS

Looks like it forms over land. Yeah, BS flag raised high on this run...

it's actually legit this time. Look at the upper level dynamics.

This run probably would have had a hurricane if it were 50 miles to the east

[LarryWx]

showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS

Looks like it forms over land. Yeah, BS flag raised high on this run...

it's actually legit this time. Look at the upper level dynamics.

This run probably would have had a hurricane if it were 50 miles to the east

How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?

[HurrMark]

Well, the main thing I guess we can get out of this is that the timing of formation continues to get closer (within a week now). Still need to wait a few days to see how this progresses. GFS appears to be the west outlier.

[Alyono]

How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?

If the upper dynamics are favorable, a TC will form over land. They are favorable this time

I want to see what the CMC and EC show though

[PTrackerLA]

showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS

Looks like it forms over land. Yeah, BS flag raised high on this run...

it's actually legit this time. Look at the upper level dynamics.

This run probably would have had a hurricane if it were 50 miles to the east

I don't like the sound of that when you consider what the Euro has been showing. Let's see what it has in store for the 12z run.

[stormlover2013]

would be some good moisture for texas though!!!!!!

[Alyono]

CMC trended weaker. 997mb into Louisiana

[Weatherwatcher98]

How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?

If the upper dynamics are favorable, a TC will form over land. They are favorable this time

I want to see what the CMC and EC show though

Never heard of that before. Example?

[stormlover2013]

cmc would be good rain for texas also