Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

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LarryWx
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Re: Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean

#141 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:06 am

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:I think Future Model Runs will shift east, Partly due to The Blow up off Belize, and Partly due to Climatology. Then again, the Tropics can be unpredictable, so until we have some Area to track all bets are off. :?:


The 12Z GFS is doing what other recent runs have been doing: they take this WC stuff and move a lot of the associated energy westward into the Bay of Campeche due to steering and prevent what's left behind in the WC from developing due to competition in the Bay of Campeche and the EPAC. There's too much competition for the WC to develop. The main question is whether or not this is what will happen or will most of the energy remain focused in the WC long enough to allow it to develop in the WC.
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Re: Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean

#142 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:10 am

LarryWx wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:I think Future Model Runs will shift east, Partly due to The Blow up off Belize, and Partly due to Climatology. Then again, the Tropics can be unpredictable, so until we have some Area to track all bets are off. :?:


The 12Z GFS is doing what other recent runs have been doing: they take this WC stuff and move a lot of the associated energy westward into the Bay of Campeche due to steering and prevent what's left behind in the WC from developing due to competition in the Bay of Campeche and the EPAC. There's too much competition for the WC to develop. The main question is whether or not this is what will happen or will most of the energy remain focused in the WC long enough to allow it to develop in the WC.
I guess I am finding it hard to go against Climatology, with the Area already Blowing up off Belize. :double:
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#143 Postby HurrMark » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:13 am

Looks like at least a broad low forming at 96 hrs in the BOC...
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Re:

#144 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:17 am

Lilly type scenario. IMO

HurrMark wrote:Looks like at least a broad low forming at 96 hrs in the BOC...
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#145 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:18 am

EPAC TC is much stronger and further West than any of the last several runs. I wonder if anything gets going in the GOM this time...
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#146 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:19 am

the main low may not form until late next week. EC had a broad low forming on Monday. It dissipates then the main cyclone forms

of course, the new MU goes incredibly far westward, throwing a monkey wrench in things
Last edited by Alyono on Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean

#147 Postby Nimbus » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:20 am

Sanibel wrote:A very weak broad wave axis near Belize right now IMO.


Right, how long till this migrates across the Yucatan into the BOC?

edit: After checking the high res vis the center looks pretty far south.
I'd say 48 hrs to the BOC with the right steering flow.

Any models take it into the Pacific?
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#148 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:36 am

showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS
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Re: Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean

#149 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:36 am

Nimbus wrote:
Sanibel wrote:A very weak broad wave axis near Belize right now IMO.


Right, how long till this migrates across the Yucatan into the BOC?

edit: After checking the high res vis the center looks pretty far south.
I'd say 48 hrs to the BOC with the right steering flow.

Any models take it into the Pacific?


Best chance of this developing in WC imo is that it does it quickly before too much of its energy moves into B of C and it gets competition from B of C and EPAC. Only a low chance as I've been saying (maybe 10% to perhaps 15%) but imo not near 0%.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#150 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:37 am

Alyono wrote:showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS


Looks like it forms over land. Yeah, BS flag raised high on this run...
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Re:

#151 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:38 am

Alyono wrote:showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS


Alyono,
MU looks bogus on this 12Z run as it strengthens into a TC over land lmao (E TX). You don't buy that, do you? Unless it isn't a TC??

PS edit: ninja'ed by Ptracker lmao
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Re: Re:

#152 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:39 am

PTrackerLA wrote:
Alyono wrote:showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS


Looks like it forms over land. Yeah, BS flag raised high on this run...


it's actually legit this time. Look at the upper level dynamics.

This run probably would have had a hurricane if it were 50 miles to the east
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Re: Re:

#153 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:41 am

Alyono wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:
Alyono wrote:showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS


Looks like it forms over land. Yeah, BS flag raised high on this run...


it's actually legit this time. Look at the upper level dynamics.

This run probably would have had a hurricane if it were 50 miles to the east


How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?
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Re: Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean

#154 Postby HurrMark » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:43 am

Well, the main thing I guess we can get out of this is that the timing of formation continues to get closer (within a week now). Still need to wait a few days to see how this progresses. GFS appears to be the west outlier.
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Re: Re:

#155 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:47 am

LarryWx wrote:
How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?


If the upper dynamics are favorable, a TC will form over land. They are favorable this time

I want to see what the CMC and EC show though
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Re: Re:

#156 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:47 am

Alyono wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:
Alyono wrote:showing a decent low over south Texas. Looks to be a TS


Looks like it forms over land. Yeah, BS flag raised high on this run...


it's actually legit this time. Look at the upper level dynamics.

This run probably would have had a hurricane if it were 50 miles to the east


I don't like the sound of that when you consider what the Euro has been showing. Let's see what it has in store for the 12z run.
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stormlover2013

Re: Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean

#157 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:05 pm

would be some good moisture for texas though!!!!!!
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#158 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:10 pm

CMC trended weaker. 997mb into Louisiana
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Re: Re:

#159 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:12 pm

Alyono wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?


If the upper dynamics are favorable, a TC will form over land. They are favorable this time

I want to see what the CMC and EC show though
Never heard of that before. Example?
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stormlover2013

Re: Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean

#160 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:16 pm

cmc would be good rain for texas also
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