INVEST 96L

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146290
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#141 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:40 pm

cinlfla wrote:
Hey my friend this is your thread.I haved been editing the title several times to put the TWO and models announcement there.It's ok for me to edit your title.



I knew you were editing the titile so everyone knew what was going on :D


But this thread will not go to 115 pages as the Irene thead is because when it reaches TD status with your permission it will be locked. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cinlfla
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 687
Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:16 pm
Location: Titusville, Florida on the Spacecoast

#142 Postby cinlfla » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:43 pm

You don't need my permission, I was so excited to see we had a new invest I posted right away. Whatever is easy as far as keeping the forum organized for readers. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#143 Postby Anonymous » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:53 pm

I would think its TD-10 at 11pm
0 likes   
Top
shaggy
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 655
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:14 pm
Location: greenville, n.c.

#144 Postby shaggy » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:55 pm

looks good from this angle


http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg


hope this link works really great sat pics on this site
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#145 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:57 pm

The nhc is going to base any upgrade on the quickscat. In which to this day doe's not show a closed LLC for Irene. I think with the inflow out of the southeast with a cirulation already becoming developed. I would think that it would be upgraded at 11pm. They will likely wait intil sun rise.

I'm still waiting on t numbers.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#146 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:12 pm

Do they have a set time to put out the t-numbers?
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#147 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:13 pm

Its becoming better organized on each satelilte frame. It has become more round with more outflow on all sides. The inflow is coming into the southeast side. In this system is starting to wrap. If this keeps up this might be a depression at 11pm.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

#148 Postby jabber » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:14 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The nhc is going to base any upgrade on the quickscat. In which to this day doe's not show a closed LLC for Irene. I think with the inflow out of the southeast with a cirulation already becoming developed. I would think that it would be upgraded at 11pm. They will likely wait intil sun rise.

I'm still waiting on t numbers.


I agree.... already looks better then Irene just a couple days ago... do not get to strong or fishy fishy
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#149 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:23 pm

WindRunner wrote:Do they have a set time to put out the t-numbers?


Position and intensity estimates are done at 2345, 0545,1145,and 1745Z. Information usually hits the servers within a half hour or so.
0 likes   
Top
du1st

#150 Postby du1st » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:26 pm

Jose!
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#151 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:35 pm

dont you think NHC will wait until it has a little bit more convection? From what I am seing here it already appears to have at the least a broad low level circulation. Do you think 96L's convection will have any say in it being upgraded?

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
superfly

#152 Postby superfly » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:36 pm

I think it will be a TD at 11PM
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#153 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:37 pm

I think the lower levels are getting organized very fast. In they are what you upgrade. You don't upgrade a blob of convection.


This is getting organized about as fast as Greg did.
0 likes   
Top
du1st

#154 Postby du1st » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:37 pm

greg?
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#155 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:38 pm

du1st wrote:greg?


in EPAC.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#156 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:39 pm

What ever you call that thing in the Eastern Pacific.

But yes the outflow/inflow is becoming impressive. Also the LLC is clearly centered near the center. I think 11pm but they will wait intill 11am intill visible.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#157 Postby boca » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:41 pm

Most important question will 96L become a fish or head into the islands.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:
Contact wx247

#158 Postby wx247 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:43 pm

I don't see this being upgraded at 11. I don't see this rapidly organizing. It is getting its act together, but not "rapidly". This looks like it will be upgraded probably at 11 am at the earliest, but hey... I'm willing to eat crow if it happens tonight.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#159 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:43 pm

boca wrote:Most important question will 96L become a fish or head into the islands.


well i guess the waiting game begins all over again.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#160 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:45 pm

wx247 wrote:I don't see this being upgraded at 11. I don't see this rapidly organizing. It is getting its act together, but not "rapidly". This looks like it will be upgraded probably at 11 am at the earliest, but hey... I'm willing to eat crow if it happens tonight.


No I think that I will agree with you. I dont see it happening tonight at 11pm either. I will join you in the crow fest if it is to occur but its not likely so we both have nothing to fear....yet :D

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane and 69 guests