INVEST 96L

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cycloneye
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#141 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:40 pm

cinlfla wrote:
Hey my friend this is your thread.I haved been editing the title several times to put the TWO and models announcement there.It's ok for me to edit your title.



I knew you were editing the titile so everyone knew what was going on :D


But this thread will not go to 115 pages as the Irene thead is because when it reaches TD status with your permission it will be locked. :)
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#142 Postby cinlfla » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:43 pm

You don't need my permission, I was so excited to see we had a new invest I posted right away. Whatever is easy as far as keeping the forum organized for readers. :wink:
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Anonymous

#143 Postby Anonymous » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:53 pm

I would think its TD-10 at 11pm
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#144 Postby shaggy » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:55 pm

looks good from this angle


http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg


hope this link works really great sat pics on this site
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#145 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 4:57 pm

The nhc is going to base any upgrade on the quickscat. In which to this day doe's not show a closed LLC for Irene. I think with the inflow out of the southeast with a cirulation already becoming developed. I would think that it would be upgraded at 11pm. They will likely wait intil sun rise.

I'm still waiting on t numbers.
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#146 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:12 pm

Do they have a set time to put out the t-numbers?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#147 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:13 pm

Its becoming better organized on each satelilte frame. It has become more round with more outflow on all sides. The inflow is coming into the southeast side. In this system is starting to wrap. If this keeps up this might be a depression at 11pm.
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#148 Postby jabber » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:14 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The nhc is going to base any upgrade on the quickscat. In which to this day doe's not show a closed LLC for Irene. I think with the inflow out of the southeast with a cirulation already becoming developed. I would think that it would be upgraded at 11pm. They will likely wait intil sun rise.

I'm still waiting on t numbers.


I agree.... already looks better then Irene just a couple days ago... do not get to strong or fishy fishy
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#149 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:23 pm

WindRunner wrote:Do they have a set time to put out the t-numbers?


Position and intensity estimates are done at 2345, 0545,1145,and 1745Z. Information usually hits the servers within a half hour or so.
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du1st

#150 Postby du1st » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:26 pm

Jose!
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#151 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:35 pm

dont you think NHC will wait until it has a little bit more convection? From what I am seing here it already appears to have at the least a broad low level circulation. Do you think 96L's convection will have any say in it being upgraded?

<RICKY>
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#152 Postby superfly » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:36 pm

I think it will be a TD at 11PM
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#153 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:37 pm

I think the lower levels are getting organized very fast. In they are what you upgrade. You don't upgrade a blob of convection.


This is getting organized about as fast as Greg did.
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#154 Postby du1st » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:37 pm

greg?
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#155 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:38 pm

du1st wrote:greg?


in EPAC.

<RICKY>
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#156 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:39 pm

What ever you call that thing in the Eastern Pacific.

But yes the outflow/inflow is becoming impressive. Also the LLC is clearly centered near the center. I think 11pm but they will wait intill 11am intill visible.
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#157 Postby boca » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:41 pm

Most important question will 96L become a fish or head into the islands.
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#158 Postby wx247 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:43 pm

I don't see this being upgraded at 11. I don't see this rapidly organizing. It is getting its act together, but not "rapidly". This looks like it will be upgraded probably at 11 am at the earliest, but hey... I'm willing to eat crow if it happens tonight.
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#159 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:43 pm

boca wrote:Most important question will 96L become a fish or head into the islands.


well i guess the waiting game begins all over again.

<RICKY>
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#160 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 12, 2005 5:45 pm

wx247 wrote:I don't see this being upgraded at 11. I don't see this rapidly organizing. It is getting its act together, but not "rapidly". This looks like it will be upgraded probably at 11 am at the earliest, but hey... I'm willing to eat crow if it happens tonight.


No I think that I will agree with you. I dont see it happening tonight at 11pm either. I will join you in the crow fest if it is to occur but its not likely so we both have nothing to fear....yet :D

<RICKY>
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