Rita Recon Reports

[oneness]

Latest model runs are seriously disconcerting. Unfortunately, that's what I've been seeing since early today.

See this thread to see what I mean.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 92#1072392

And an ERC is concluding to boot. Do we need any more really good news?

I see a La landfall and stall, bad bad bad news indeed.

To be frankly honest, a Lousiana landfall is probably the best case scenario.

I agree. Hopefully, eve if Rita doesn't weaken significantly, she will at least pull a Camille and devastate a sparsely populated area of little economic importance.

Not a chance, unfortunately. That area of the gulf has by far the densest concentration of oil production platforms and facilities. The economic kick in the groin is potentially massive at cat 4.

[Solaris]

SXXX50 KNHC 230510
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 45 KNHC
0459. 2641N 09055W 03047 5182 046 100 116 098 101 02901 0000000000
0500 2640N 09054W 03046 5198 043 102 110 100 103 02883 0000000000
0500. 2638N 09053W 03048 5216 041 102 100 100 102 02866 0000000000
0501 2637N 09051W 03050 5237 042 108 088 088 110 02848 0000000000
0501. 2636N 09050W 03048 5264 042 111 094 094 112 02819 0000000000
0502 2635N 09049W 03048 5293 041 111 094 094 112 02790 0000000000
0502. 2634N 09048W 03049 5327 043 109 096 096 110 02757 0000000100
0503 2633N 09046W 03050 5362 048 098 104 104 104 02723 0000000100
0503. 2632N 09045W 03045 5395 042 084 112 112 086 02685 0000000000
0504 2631N 09044W 03043 5425 039 084 130 130 085 02652 0000000000
0504. 2629N 09043W 03052 5453 040 085 146 146 086 02633 0000000000
0505 2628N 09041W 03047 5484 037 078 154 150 080 02598 0000000000
0505. 2627N 09040W 03049 5512 038 065 160 152 071 02572 0000000000
0506 2626N 09038W 03048 5537 036 052 158 158 055 02545 0000000000
0506. 2625N 09036W 03044 5558 039 038 156 156 044 02520 0000000000
0507 2624N 09035W 03049 5571 050 024 156 156 028 02512 0000000000
0507. 2623N 09033W 03048 5577 045 012 158 158 016 02505 0000000000
0508 2622N 09032W 03047 5579 158 003 158 158 007 02503 0000000000
0508. 2621N 09031W 03048 5576 215 016 158 158 021 02506 0000000000
0509 2620N 09029W 03046 5568 213 030 160 160 033 02512 0000000000

looks like it weakened: 112 kt max 'only', 700 mb ~ 2500 m. pressure may be up to 925-930 hPa.

[soonertwister]

post deleted

[mtm4319]

looks like it weakened: 112 kt max 'only', 700 mb ~ 2500 m. pressure may be up to 925-930 hPa.

Looks like the northwest quad.

[JohnTK5]

SXXX50 KNHC 230510
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 45 KNHC
0459. 2641N 09055W 03047 5182 046 100 116 098 101 02901 0000000000
0500 2640N 09054W 03046 5198 043 102 110 100 103 02883 0000000000
0500. 2638N 09053W 03048 5216 041 102 100 100 102 02866 0000000000
0501 2637N 09051W 03050 5237 042 108 088 088 110 02848 0000000000
0501. 2636N 09050W 03048 5264 042 111 094 094 112 02819 0000000000
0502 2635N 09049W 03048 5293 041 111 094 094 112 02790 0000000000
0502. 2634N 09048W 03049 5327 043 109 096 096 110 02757 0000000100
0503 2633N 09046W 03050 5362 048 098 104 104 104 02723 0000000100
0503. 2632N 09045W 03045 5395 042 084 112 112 086 02685 0000000000
0504 2631N 09044W 03043 5425 039 084 130 130 085 02652 0000000000
0504. 2629N 09043W 03052 5453 040 085 146 146 086 02633 0000000000
0505 2628N 09041W 03047 5484 037 078 154 150 080 02598 0000000000
0505. 2627N 09040W 03049 5512 038 065 160 152 071 02572 0000000000
0506 2626N 09038W 03048 5537 036 052 158 158 055 02545 0000000000
0506. 2625N 09036W 03044 5558 039 038 156 156 044 02520 0000000000
0507 2624N 09035W 03049 5571 050 024 156 156 028 02512 0000000000
0507. 2623N 09033W 03048 5577 045 012 158 158 016 02505 0000000000
0508 2622N 09032W 03047 5579 158 003 158 158 007 02503 0000000000
0508. 2621N 09031W 03048 5576 215 016 158 158 021 02506 0000000000
0509 2620N 09029W 03046 5568 213 030 160 160 033 02512 0000000000

looks like it weakened: 112 kt max 'only', 700 mb ~ 2500 m. pressure may be up to 925-930 hPa.

Cat 3 then.

[tallywx]

More like 924mb, based on previous offsets between listed passes and vortex.

[mtm4319]

Cat 3 then.

Very doubtful. Unless they don't find winds stronger than that in the NE quad, anyway.

[rsdoug1981]

Cat 3 then.

Very doubtful. Unless they don't find winds stronger than that in the NE quad, anyway.

In the analysis forum, Derek said that he'd be using cat 3 in his forecasts based on what he's seen on the plane and data received since then.

[LTHLBLU]

000
URNT12 KNHC 230534
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:07:30Z
B. 26 deg 23 min N
090 deg 33 min W
C. 700 mb 2432 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 043 deg 112 kt
G. 311 deg 020 nm
H. 921 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 16 C/ 3045 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 03:31:30 Z

[rsdoug1981]

Pressure's up and winds are down slightly...I'll take it for now.

[mtm4319]

Cat 3 then.

Very doubtful. Unless they don't find winds stronger than that in the NE quad, anyway.

In the analysis forum, Derek said that he'd be using cat 3 in his forecasts based on what he's seen on the plane and data received since then.

Like that 921mb vortex that just came in? I mean, they may be right, but it's quite puzzling.

[LTHLBLU]

Pressure's up and winds are down slightly...I'll take it for now.

werent they at 125kt before? so they went up...

[mtm4319]

Cat 3 then.

Very doubtful. Unless they don't find winds stronger than that in the NE quad, anyway.

In the analysis forum, Derek said that he'd be using cat 3 in his forecasts based on what he's seen on the plane and data received since then.

NHC maintains 140mph, Cat 4 as of the 1am CDT advisory.

[DLI2k5]

Now that it's pretty much completed the ERC, do you think the pressure is now stabilizing and the winds? Is it likely the pressure will again start dropping in awhile and winds will increase?

[rsdoug1981]

Cat 3 then.

Very doubtful. Unless they don't find winds stronger than that in the NE quad, anyway.

In the analysis forum, Derek said that he'd be using cat 3 in his forecasts based on what he's seen on the plane and data received since then.

NHC maintains 140mph, Cat 4 as of the 1am CDT advisory.

Don't shoot the messenger

A new satellite image is up. She's not looking nearly as healthy as she was earlier.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Derek Ortt]

NHC at 11 also said the winds were 145KT when we only measured 137KT at 700mb in the NE quad

we are not seeing the 90% reduction factor either. it has been closer to 80 for this storm

[mtm4319]

Don't shoot the messenger

I wasn't.

A new satellite image is up. She's not looking nearly as healthy as she was earlier.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Yeah, I saw that. If this keeps up, it looks like we'll have another Lili on our hands.

[rsdoug1981]

Don't shoot the messenger

I wasn't.

A new satellite image is up. She's not looking nearly as healthy as she was earlier.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Yeah, I saw that. If this keeps up, it looks like we'll have another Lili on our hands.

Block party in Baton Rouge if that happens...just have to check with the wife.

[oneness]

Eye finally filled in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

EDIT: argh, it just swapped back to the 3:15 UTC images again.

[artist]

Derek - do you think it went thru ERC? and if so will it start to get stronger later?


Didn't Katrina do this as well at one time?


I hope it is a trend fo r the good, believe me. just scared of surprises though!