Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[Nederlander]

Accuweather is big on this wave.. its got a lot to overcome.. im not convinced

[N2Storms]

[quote="Nederlander"]Accuweather is big on this wave.. its got a lot to overcome.. im not convinced[/quote]




I don't see it either...it may prove to be a vigorous wave that is capable of producing lots of rain and if that's the case, you folks in Texas ought to love that scenario...I will admit that although it is very elongated at this point, it does seem to want to keep holding together...it has more convection than TD 2...maybe you guys will get some much needed rain out of this and nothing more

[Nederlander]

Accuweather is big on this wave.. its got a lot to overcome.. im not convinced

I don't see it either...it may prove to be a vigorous wave that is capable of producing lots of rain and if that's the case, you folks in Texas ought to love that scenario...I will admit that although it is very elongated at this point, it does seem to want to keep holding together...it has more convection than TD 2...maybe you guys will get some much needed rain out of this and nothing more

I will welcome that for sure...

[Pearl River]

From New Orleans morning AFD:


THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE SHOULD REMAIN
DISORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TOO
CLOSE TO TWO UPPER LOWS. THE FIRST BEING THE TUTT LOW MOVING WEST
OVER EASTERN CUBA. THIS ONE WILL KEEP MOVING WSW WITH THE MID
SECTION OF THE WAVE. THE SECOND WILL BE THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS ONE WILL ALSO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM BEGINS WHEN THIS FEATURE
ON THE NORTH END OF THE WAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE OLD
TROUGH BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WE MAY START TO NOTICE
THIS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE BROUGHT POP
NUMBERS UPWARD INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SUN AND MON AND MOVE THEM
FROM EAST TO WEST.

[Nederlander]

Ok now this thing is starting to impress me.. looking better than i expected...

[TexWx]

This is the only wave I've been watching all day.

Looks like a decent rain maker for someone.

My home's foundation hopes it's us.

[paintplaye]

Ok now this thing is starting to impress me.. looking better than i expected...

Let's see how it looks tomorrow.

[S.FLA STORM TRACKER]

Evening ,

Been watching this all day. Storms have stayed constant, and not diminished. Should bring some down pours to us as it passes by.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

very impressive. Have been watching this wave since last week. GFDL sniffed development with a few runs. I hvent seen anything since. But something that big, regardless of the Upper level lows must be watched. If it clears that boundary and shakes the ULL it will be a major player next week cause it is definately headed for the florida sraights IMO

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Accuweather is big on this wave.. its got a lot to overcome.. im not convinced

I don't see it either...it may prove to be a vigorous wave that is capable of producing lots of rain and if that's the case, you folks in Texas ought to love that scenario...I will admit that although it is very elongated at this point, it does seem to want to keep holding together...it has more convection than TD 2...maybe you guys will get some much needed rain out of this and nothing more

Kind of agree it has alot of stuff to overcome but Large Waves at this time of year entering the gulf usually dont stay waves very long

[rrm]

do they put out models for tropical waves and if so where can i find them?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

do they put out models for tropical waves and if so where can i find them?

Models show things all the time. Relax. Google GFS, CMC, GFDL models and bingo

[HouTXmetro]

Well Convection is already starting to re-fire. We may have a player.

[Nederlander]

I thought Joe B was being a little vigorous when he told the Gulf Coast residents not to ignore this wave cause its going to try and spin a Low Pressure center. He may be on to something, I personally havent seen the models pick up on this yet, but it could be something to watch as it heads toward the gulf over the weekend. Convection has been pretty persistent. I know that its been interacting with that ULL, causing some of the convection, but its look more and more impressive to be over as much land as it is.. Can someone tell me the wind forecast in the Gulf? Obviously its a hot tub as far as SST's go, but what about the shear forecast?

[lrak]

It is starting to look like some rain is headed for the TX coast starting Tuesday according to the local forecasts. Still no mention of wind

[rrm]

what part of texas will get the brunt of this?

[HouTXmetro]

what part of texas will get the brunt of this?

To early to tell if this will develop, let alone know where it will affect.

[Nederlander]

what part of texas will get the brunt of this?

We can't even be sure Texas will get anything out of this.. I know Texas would appreciate some much needed rain from this system, but we will have a better idea early next week.

[SETXWXLADY]

what part of texas will get the brunt of this?

From what I can tell this will be just a rain maker. Hopefully that stays true. This is from the Lake Charles discussion about it.


CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING
THE DAY SUN...WITH BETTER CHANCES GOING INTO MON AND TUE. THE
CAUSE OF THIS WILL BE A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
CUBA...AND TROPICAL WAVE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF IT...WILL BE MOVING
WNW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. THE AXIS
OF GREATEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE REGION ON
TUE...THUS GIVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. BY WED AND
THU...THE CHANCES WILL DECREASE BACK TO CLIMO AS THE MOISTURE
DIFFUSES ACROSS THE REGION.

This is the local NWS for SW/LA and SE/TX.

[tailgater]

Weak low forming? Just south of Panama city.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
should track westward non tropical.