Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

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Nederlander
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#161 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 13, 2009 1:05 pm

Accuweather is big on this wave.. its got a lot to overcome.. im not convinced
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#162 Postby N2Storms » Thu Aug 13, 2009 1:11 pm

[quote="Nederlander"]Accuweather is big on this wave.. its got a lot to overcome.. im not convinced[/quote]




I don't see it either...it may prove to be a vigorous wave that is capable of producing lots of rain and if that's the case, you folks in Texas ought to love that scenario...I will admit that although it is very elongated at this point, it does seem to want to keep holding together...it has more convection than TD 2...maybe you guys will get some much needed rain out of this and nothing more
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#163 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 13, 2009 2:27 pm

N2Storms wrote:
Nederlander wrote:Accuweather is big on this wave.. its got a lot to overcome.. im not convinced





I don't see it either...it may prove to be a vigorous wave that is capable of producing lots of rain and if that's the case, you folks in Texas ought to love that scenario...I will admit that although it is very elongated at this point, it does seem to want to keep holding together...it has more convection than TD 2...maybe you guys will get some much needed rain out of this and nothing more


I will welcome that for sure...
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#164 Postby Pearl River » Thu Aug 13, 2009 2:37 pm

From New Orleans morning AFD:


THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE SHOULD REMAIN
DISORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TOO
CLOSE TO TWO UPPER LOWS. THE FIRST BEING THE TUTT LOW MOVING WEST
OVER EASTERN CUBA. THIS ONE WILL KEEP MOVING WSW WITH THE MID
SECTION OF THE WAVE. THE SECOND WILL BE THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS ONE WILL ALSO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM BEGINS WHEN THIS FEATURE
ON THE NORTH END OF THE WAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE OLD
TROUGH BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WE MAY START TO NOTICE
THIS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE BROUGHT POP
NUMBERS UPWARD INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SUN AND MON AND MOVE THEM
FROM EAST TO WEST.
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#165 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:28 pm

Image

Ok now this thing is starting to impress me.. looking better than i expected...
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#166 Postby TexWx » Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:53 pm

This is the only wave I've been watching all day.

Looks like a decent rain maker for someone.

My home's foundation hopes it's us.
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#167 Postby paintplaye » Thu Aug 13, 2009 7:27 pm

Nederlander wrote:Image

Ok now this thing is starting to impress me.. looking better than i expected...



Let's see how it looks tomorrow.
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#168 Postby S.FLA STORM TRACKER » Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:33 pm

Evening ,

Been watching this all day. Storms have stayed constant, and not diminished. Should bring some down pours to us as it passes by.
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#169 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:12 pm

very impressive. Have been watching this wave since last week. GFDL sniffed development with a few runs. I hvent seen anything since. But something that big, regardless of the Upper level lows must be watched. If it clears that boundary and shakes the ULL it will be a major player next week cause it is definately headed for the florida sraights IMO
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#170 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:17 pm

N2Storms wrote:
Nederlander wrote:Accuweather is big on this wave.. its got a lot to overcome.. im not convinced





I don't see it either...it may prove to be a vigorous wave that is capable of producing lots of rain and if that's the case, you folks in Texas ought to love that scenario...I will admit that although it is very elongated at this point, it does seem to want to keep holding together...it has more convection than TD 2...maybe you guys will get some much needed rain out of this and nothing more


Kind of agree it has alot of stuff to overcome but Large Waves at this time of year entering the gulf usually dont stay waves very long 8-)
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#171 Postby rrm » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:20 pm

do they put out models for tropical waves and if so where can i find them?
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Re:

#172 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:21 pm

rrm wrote:do they put out models for tropical waves and if so where can i find them?


Models show things all the time. Relax. Google GFS, CMC, GFDL models and bingo
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#173 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:30 pm

Well Convection is already starting to re-fire. We may have a player.
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#174 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:43 pm

I thought Joe B was being a little vigorous when he told the Gulf Coast residents not to ignore this wave cause its going to try and spin a Low Pressure center. He may be on to something, I personally havent seen the models pick up on this yet, but it could be something to watch as it heads toward the gulf over the weekend. Convection has been pretty persistent. I know that its been interacting with that ULL, causing some of the convection, but its look more and more impressive to be over as much land as it is.. Can someone tell me the wind forecast in the Gulf? Obviously its a hot tub as far as SST's go, but what about the shear forecast?
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#175 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:44 pm

It is starting to look like some rain is headed for the TX coast starting Tuesday according to the local forecasts. Still no mention of wind :D
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#176 Postby rrm » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:45 pm

what part of texas will get the brunt of this?
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Re:

#177 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:58 pm

rrm wrote:what part of texas will get the brunt of this?


To early to tell if this will develop, let alone know where it will affect.
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Re:

#178 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:02 pm

rrm wrote:what part of texas will get the brunt of this?

We can't even be sure Texas will get anything out of this.. I know Texas would appreciate some much needed rain from this system, but we will have a better idea early next week.
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Re:

#179 Postby SETXWXLADY » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:03 pm

rrm wrote:what part of texas will get the brunt of this?


From what I can tell this will be just a rain maker. Hopefully that stays true. This is from the Lake Charles discussion about it.


CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING
THE DAY SUN...WITH BETTER CHANCES GOING INTO MON AND TUE. THE
CAUSE OF THIS WILL BE A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
CUBA...AND TROPICAL WAVE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF IT...WILL BE MOVING
WNW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. THE AXIS
OF GREATEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE REGION ON
TUE...THUS GIVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. BY WED AND
THU...THE CHANCES WILL DECREASE BACK TO CLIMO AS THE MOISTURE
DIFFUSES ACROSS THE REGION.

This is the local NWS for SW/LA and SE/TX.
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Re: Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

#180 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 14, 2009 2:24 am

Weak low forming? Just south of Panama city.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes
should track westward non tropical.
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