Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Tertius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 127
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:12 pm
Location: Delray Beach, FL

Re:

#161 Postby Tertius » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:30 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:How is this not 91L? Somebody must be sleeping on the job...lol.


If it were closer to some significant land mass it probably would be. As it is though there is little hurry. Nonetheless I expect it will be an invest quite soon, it ticks all the right boxes.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Annie Oakley
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
Location: Texas

Re:

#162 Postby Annie Oakley » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:31 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:How is this not 91L? Somebody must be sleeping on the job...lol.


Hope not too stupid a question.....does NHC have to have a contained geographical point of reference parameter to have authority to identify/number/name it?
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Re:

#163 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:And the convective burst I mentioned would happen tonight and tomorrow seems to in progress near where the estimates of the developing LLC.


What do you think of that ASCAT pass showing a well defined circulation on this stage?


pretty straight forward. I posted an image earlier of the area to watch for LLC to develop. the ASCAT at least confirms the organization is farther along than most suspected.. I did a great deal of analysis earlier and although I did not go into detail I tried to point out the key features. I mentioned earlier I would not be surprised if we had TC sometime saturday...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#164 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:36 pm

by the way.. there is a floater over the system

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#165 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:40 pm

I think the biggest thing that troubles me with this wave, is that it is probably harbinger of what is to come this hurricane season. That ridge over the C ATL needs to hurry up and die already.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Fego
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 767
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Contact:
Contact Fego

Re: Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic - 20%

#166 Postby Fego » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:40 pm

Odd runs have had the GFS model (18 / 00 UTC). It dissapears the pouch just before passing Jamaica, making it to turn to the North and then "pooof". :double:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... ageSize=Ms
0 likes   
Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic - 20%

#167 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:50 pm

GFS has had some issues this year for sure.... :lol:

notice the sinking air to the N of this wave...hindering / undercutting sustained convection is my guess as well as proximity to the ITCZ.....have to agree with Aric though, good circulation, low pressure, moist envelope this is 91L and might be a TD come Sunday.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4229
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re:

#168 Postby abajan » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:54 pm

Vortex wrote:00z CMC more agressive and moves at least a strong TS into the NE carribean in 56 days....



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Surely, you mean 5 - 6 days! :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 49
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: Re:

#169 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:59 pm

abajan wrote:
Vortex wrote:00z CMC more agressive and moves at least a strong TS into the NE carribean in 56 days....



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Surely, you mean 5 - 6 days! :lol:


Nah, I think he meant 56...Didn't you know that forecasts are getting REALLY good now!!! LOL :P
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
HurricaneWarning92
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)

#170 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:00 pm

IF it develops quickly, and we have a TD or TS by Sunday, wouldnt that most likely cause the system to move on a wnw to NW motion?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143863
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic - 20%

#171 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:09 pm

00z GFS shows our pouch approaching the Lesser Antilles in 66 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143863
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic - 20%

#172 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:13 pm

Ok folks,is now invest 91L. Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 95 guests