Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

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Tertius
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Re:

#161 Postby Tertius » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:30 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:How is this not 91L? Somebody must be sleeping on the job...lol.


If it were closer to some significant land mass it probably would be. As it is though there is little hurry. Nonetheless I expect it will be an invest quite soon, it ticks all the right boxes.
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Re:

#162 Postby Annie Oakley » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:31 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:How is this not 91L? Somebody must be sleeping on the job...lol.


Hope not too stupid a question.....does NHC have to have a contained geographical point of reference parameter to have authority to identify/number/name it?
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Re: Re:

#163 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:And the convective burst I mentioned would happen tonight and tomorrow seems to in progress near where the estimates of the developing LLC.


What do you think of that ASCAT pass showing a well defined circulation on this stage?


pretty straight forward. I posted an image earlier of the area to watch for LLC to develop. the ASCAT at least confirms the organization is farther along than most suspected.. I did a great deal of analysis earlier and although I did not go into detail I tried to point out the key features. I mentioned earlier I would not be surprised if we had TC sometime saturday...
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#164 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:36 pm

by the way.. there is a floater over the system

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater
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#165 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:40 pm

I think the biggest thing that troubles me with this wave, is that it is probably harbinger of what is to come this hurricane season. That ridge over the C ATL needs to hurry up and die already.
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Re: Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic - 20%

#166 Postby Fego » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:40 pm

Odd runs have had the GFS model (18 / 00 UTC). It dissapears the pouch just before passing Jamaica, making it to turn to the North and then "pooof". :double:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... ageSize=Ms
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Re: Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic - 20%

#167 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:50 pm

GFS has had some issues this year for sure.... :lol:

notice the sinking air to the N of this wave...hindering / undercutting sustained convection is my guess as well as proximity to the ITCZ.....have to agree with Aric though, good circulation, low pressure, moist envelope this is 91L and might be a TD come Sunday.
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Re:

#168 Postby abajan » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:54 pm

Vortex wrote:00z CMC more agressive and moves at least a strong TS into the NE carribean in 56 days....



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Surely, you mean 5 - 6 days! :lol:
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Re: Re:

#169 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:59 pm

abajan wrote:
Vortex wrote:00z CMC more agressive and moves at least a strong TS into the NE carribean in 56 days....



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Surely, you mean 5 - 6 days! :lol:


Nah, I think he meant 56...Didn't you know that forecasts are getting REALLY good now!!! LOL :P
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#170 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:00 pm

IF it develops quickly, and we have a TD or TS by Sunday, wouldnt that most likely cause the system to move on a wnw to NW motion?
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Re: Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic - 20%

#171 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:09 pm

00z GFS shows our pouch approaching the Lesser Antilles in 66 hours.

Image
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Re: Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic - 20%

#172 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:13 pm

Ok folks,is now invest 91L. Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions.
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