2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The May CanSIPS is up. This is for ASO. Definitly, not the same look as the 2024 run on both precipitation and the sst anomalys.

https://i.imgur.com/BqbVHm0.png

https://i.imgur.com/fkNdXjE.png

Almost a "bifurcated" look with the well above avg subtropics and southern half of the MDR, with the anoms in between being above avg but not to the extent of the other two areas listed. I could definitely see at least some modest stability issues arising from the subtropical warmth, but it's not like the MDR proper is cool, so perhaps not overwhelmingly so? I'm probably just spitballing here though

[cycloneye]

The May CanSIPS is up. This is for ASO. Definitly, not the same look as the 2024 run on both precipitation and the sst anomalys.

https://i.imgur.com/BqbVHm0.png

https://i.imgur.com/fkNdXjE.png

Almost a "bifurcated" look with the well above avg subtropics and southern half of the MDR, with the anoms in between being above avg but not to the extent of the other two areas listed. I could definitely see at least some modest stability issues arising from the subtropical warmth, but it's not like the MDR proper is cool, so perhaps not overwhelmingly so? I'm probably just spitballing here though

Maybe some wavebreaking issues like in 2022?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The May CanSIPS is up. This is for ASO. Definitly, not the same look as the 2024 run on both precipitation and the sst anomalys.

https://i.imgur.com/BqbVHm0.png

https://i.imgur.com/fkNdXjE.png

Almost a "bifurcated" look with the well above avg subtropics and southern half of the MDR, with the anoms in between being above avg but not to the extent of the other two areas listed. I could definitely see at least some modest stability issues arising from the subtropical warmth, but it's not like the MDR proper is cool, so perhaps not overwhelmingly so? I'm probably just spitballing here though

Maybe some wavebreaking issues like in 2022?

Could be given what the CSU highlighted:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1907802532732084692