Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[cycloneye]

Huge difference between 2009 and 2010.

March 25,2009



March 24,2010

[drezee]

MDR in 2005 has caught and passed this year in some cases

[cycloneye]

NAO (North Atlantic Occilation) will continue in negative territory for a while.

[KWT]

While the NAO has been slightly negative in truth the synoptics across E.atlantic are very typical for the time of year with a much stronger Azores high then back this winter, however the models are suggesting some strengthening of the -ve NAO again and importantly a weakening of the Azores high, so whilst there may continue to be some weakening of the anomalies, they are still going to be warm...

[cycloneye]

Very impressive Tropical Atlantic.And what about that very warm anomaly off Massachussetts?

[cycloneye]

Loop current slowly transporting warmer waters into the GOM.

[drezee]

Seriously....SSTs are in the slot...

[KWT]

Its amazing just how sharp the gradient between the much warmer then average waters and the cooler then average waters!

[MWatkins]

The similarity to 2005, in terms of the SST anomaly distribution, is quite remarkable for this time of year. I looked to see if this comparison was made earlier in the thread (and I see that Gator did exactly that in Feb)...but I haven't seen it recently.

First, here is the full ocean view on April 1st of this year



Second, here is the same view from 5 years ago (wow, 5 years already):



The south Atlantic is warmer this year, and the cold area in the East Pac off of south America is much more pronounced in 2005. Obviously, the Gulf was much warmer in 2005 too, but that's going to change as we get further into spring. The heat content is still there, and warm water will feed up from the Caribbean.

But, wow, the temperature distribution in the deep tropics and throughout most of the Atlantic is very similar, except the MDR this year is warmer relative to average than 2005.

Unless something unexpected happens to reverse the trend (and it can) pressures down there should be well below normal for the next several months. The trades should be much weaker than last year (cutting down on directional shear), and as has been mentioned by others in posts before this one, there will be less relatively dry air hanging around the MDR.

Also, with temperature profiles looking like this, there is some relationship to SE Texas rainfall amounts. If I remember correctly, Dr Landsea pointed out that warm MDR years mean more rain for SE Texas that isn't from Tropical Cyclones. Either that, or it causes drought there...I can't remember which one.

MW

[Sanibel]

That cold Gulf is keeping our temperature down by the coast here compared to the inland areas.


.

[jinftl]

In just the last week, waters in the Gulf have finally begun to climb....and the momentum of that warming will be increasing over the next several weeks into the summer.

[gatorcane]

The similarity to 2005, in terms of the SST anomaly distribution, is quite remarkable for this time of year. I looked to see if this comparison was made earlier in the thread (and I see that Gator did exactly that in Feb)...but I haven't seen it recently.

First, here is the full ocean view on April 1st of this year



Second, here is the same view from 5 years ago (wow, 5 years already):



The south Atlantic is warmer this year, and the cold area in the East Pac off of south America is much more pronounced in 2005. Obviously, the Gulf was much warmer in 2005 too, but that's going to change as we get further into spring. The heat content is still there, and warm water will feed up from the Caribbean.

But, wow, the temperature distribution in the deep tropics and throughout most of the Atlantic is very similar, except the MDR this year is warmer relative to average than 2005.

Unless something unexpected happens to reverse the trend (and it can) pressures down there should be well below normal for the next several months. The trades should be much weaker than last year (cutting down on directional shear), and as has been mentioned by others in posts before this one, there will be less relatively dry air hanging around the MDR.

Also, with temperature profiles looking like this, there is some relationship to SE Texas rainfall amounts. If I remember correctly, Dr Landsea pointed out that warm MDR years mean more rain for SE Texas that isn't from Tropical Cyclones. Either that, or it causes drought there...I can't remember which one.

MW

HI Mr. Watkins. Yes I did notice the similarities back in February. A couple of months later and it looks like the similarities are holding. If the atmospheric conditions are as favorable this season as 2005, it could be quite active indeed. Based on some of the things you have mentioned such as the presence of light trades in the MDR and less dry air, it looks like things are pointing to a much more active season than 2009.

[drezee]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadsst2/charts.html
Check the March Anomalies...7 points measured as the warmest ever where Atlantic storms typically form!! Where can I get the MDR anomalies? Also, the Gulf is in the 98th percentile of the coldest ever...

[jinftl]

The colder than normal Gulf temps will be quickly replaced by steadily warming water in the coming 4 to 8 weeks. Now that we have finally broken the pattern of constant cold fronts and northerly flow really cooling down the surface layer of water in the Gulf, the Gulf will warm up surprisingly quickly. The Loop Current looks primed to serve as a heat pump even now, after the winter that wouldn't end.

Just in the last 10 days, the chill has started to break on the Gulf sst....some areas warming 1-2 deg Celsius in just the last 10 days. Note what is building in coverage in the Yucatan Channel...a solid area of water in the 78-80 deg range.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadsst2/charts.html
Check the March Anomalies...7 points measured as the warmest ever where Atlantic storms typically form!! Where can I get the MDR anomalies? Also, the Gulf is in the 98th percentile of the coldest ever...

[cycloneye]

MDR anomalies are ridiculously warm.

[jinftl]

Scary to see the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico running above normal when the surrounding areas are below normal. Does this mean we will have a supercharged Loop Current like in 2005?

MDR anomalies are ridiculously warm.

[drezee]

The sun angle is doing serious work in the MDR!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=GMT

[KWT]

Yeah a little worrying that the loop current is showing its hand again even when the SST's are well below average elsewhere.

[cycloneye]

GOM 2005



GOM 2010

[drezee]

Anomalies are heading West....